Week 9 Picks:  2008 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

October 16, 2008


 

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK 8, 2008 Football Picks in Review:

Wrong - 1; Right - 11 = 91.8%

The Pick The Result

Hammond 26, Gavit 22  

Hammond 37-7

North Newton 28 Lake Station 20  

North Newton 49-14

Clark 30, Whiting 21  

Clark 38-8

Hobart 42, Morton 21  

Hobart 32-27

Calumet 32,  South Central 16  

Calumet 38-6

Wheeler 52, Bishop Noll  14  

Wheeler 59-27

Michigan City 28, LaPorte 24  

Michigan City 34-28

Merrillville 29, Lake Central 14  

Merrillville 34-3

Valparaiso 34, Portage 7  

Valparaiso 45-7

Griffith 28, Andrean 14  

Griffith 41-7

Lowell 31, Munster 21  

Lowell 24-7

CP 20, Chesterton 14  

WRONG... Chesterton 20-7

WEEK-EIGHT (8) RECAP from Friday, October 10, 2008:  If I hadn't gone for the upset on CP-Chesterton, I'd have been 12-0, but is wasn't a tough week.  Anybody who's been paying attention would have done well.  The best pick?  Probably Michigan City over LaPorte.  That could have gone either way.  This late in the year, it's hard for teams to change trends and there's a lot of statistical information on them.  Picks the first few weeks are really guesswork because there's just no track record.  But when you've played six games, you are what you are.

'Mr. Picker's Recent Picking Record

2008 (Week 8)  11 of 12   = 91.8%
2008 (Week 7)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 6)  9 of 11   = 81.9%
2008 (Week 5)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 4)  7 of 10   = 70.0%
2008 (Week 3)  7 of 12   = 58.3%
2008 (Week 2)  6 of 10   = 60.0%
2008 (Week 1)  9 of 12   =  75.0%
2008 Year to Date:  59 of 87 = 67.8%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%


Northwest Indiana WEEK-NINE (9) PICKS, 10-17-2008

VALPARAISO (10-17-2008) - Week nine is always devalued by the state tourney draw.  As I've said many times, you had better, in some way, be working on your sectional quarterfinal foe by this time because he's certainly already working on you.  I don't much care about conference titles so it would not be hard for me to sit out all injured players this week.  Remember, Indiana high school sectional champs play football 13 weeks in a row.  (Unless you are Bishop Chatard.  Check the state tournament brackets.)  That is not done in the NFL nor is it done in college.  You've got to give players a rest.  That makes the final week a little risky to pick.

Lets again drop the blowouts.  Obviously, Highland (0-8) at Hobart (7-1) can't be on any serious pickers' list.  That's almost as big a mismatch as Lew Wallace against Indianapolis Cathedral.  Lake Station (0-8) has no chance against Whiting (6-2) and Gavit can't beat Morton without a court order.

State playoff weather arrives this week with temperatures in the upper 40s much of the game.  Since most games on this night are still beyond meaningless and injured players may sit out, it might be a good night to listen to the game on the radio.


Hammond (5-3) at Clark (5-3)

HAMMOND (10-17-2008) Hammond soph QB Antwon McGee threw two more TD passes last week, but so did Clark junior Micah Rooke.  I think the Pioneers block for the run a little better up front and that's going to be the difference on a cold night.  Clark feels they can upset Andrean for the Sectional 17 title though, so they must rest all injured players.  It doesn't make sense to do anything else.

Clark 27, Hammond 12


Griffith (4-4) at East Chicago (4-3)

EAST CHICAGO (10-17-2008) This game looks even on paper but it's not.  I sense Griffith is improving.  There's no way they're a .500 team.  EC played Bowman Academy last week and they were postponed the week before, so they really haven't played since September.  EC hosts Griffith two weeks in a row and it would not serve them well to show much here even if they could.  Griffith's pass rush shuts down EC.

Griffith 42, East Chicago 16


Kankakee Valley (3-5) at Munster (5-3)

MUNSTER (10-17-2008) An intriguing matchup.  KV has won their last three and they've rolled up 800 yards rushing in the last three weeks.  Munster needs to be more pro-active throwing the ball.  Translated:  Don't wait until third down.  KV got the best draw in this part of the state and they will come in with high spirits and 1,000-yard rusher (134 carries, 1006 yards, 17 TDs) Dylan Patrick (5-10, 190).  On a cold night this will be close, but I'll stay with the favorite.  Munster is toast if they enter the playoffs on a 3-game losing streak.

Munster 24, Kankakee Valley 21


Wirt (2-6) at Gary Roosevelt (0-6)

GARY (10-17-2008) In an announcement that stunned some, the Gary School Board announced this week that Wirt (812 students) will close after this school year as part of a $23 million dollar budget reduction.  Wirt is the smallest of the Gary schools and the building is in poor condition so it will close with the students going, I assume, to Lew Wallace (900), Roosevelt (890), and potential Bowman Academy (323) which may push one of them to Class 4A in the next football alignment, which is coming for the 2009 season.  So suddenly, this game Friday will be the final game ever between these two tradition-rich Gary schools.  Roosevelt doesn't want to go winless and this is their final realistic chance (they drew a sectional quarterfinal game at tough New Prairie (5-3) to win.  But even before the news this week, Wirt was the better team.

Wirt 34, Roosevelt 16


Calumet (7-1) at Wheeler (8-0)

UNION TOWNSHIP (10-17-2008) These two teams play for the Greater South Shore Conference (GSSC) title in Porter County, the only true head-to-head championship game this season.  Don't get carried away.  There are 318 football playing schools.  Wheeler's schedule is 313th toughest.  Calumet officially played the worst schedule (318th) state wide on the computer ratings.  The GSSC is statistically the state's weakest league.  But don't let me rain on the parade.  This is a true championship game.  Winner take all.  These teams are not comparable.  The Bearcats are physically stronger and more diverse.

Wheeler 63, Calumet 28


Benton Central (4-4) at Rensselaer (4-4)

RENSSELAER (10-17-2008) An interesting final match up as the 2A Bombers host 3A BC.  This is a one-point game on the computer as the records indicate.  BC has some outside speed, but I'm waiting on the big offensive line of Rensselaer to start taking over in bad weather, which is expected.  BC has won three in a row, but they are looking at a sectional quarterfinal with undefeated West Lafayette (8-0).  Two of Rensselaer's losses are to Top-10 teams.  I'll go with the computer.

Benton Central 28, Rensselaer 27


Valparaiso (7-1) at Lake Central (3-5)

ST. JOHN (10-17-2008) Nobody wants to say it out loud, but Valparaiso is the best team in the Duneland Conference.  LC has struggled through an injury-riddled year.  Big tackle Mike Kalinich (6-5, 302), who missed the first half of the season, is still not 100% and that has crippled LC's running game.  Valpo has to be burning over all the talk about how wonderful Chesterton and Lowell are.  But if Merrillville beats Chesterton, Valpo ties for the DAC title.  The green team has a lot to play for.

Valparaiso 35, LC 10


LaPorte (2-6) at Portage (5-3)

PORTAGE (10-17-2008) The key here is not to overreact to Portage's blowout loss last week to Valpo.  LaPorte runs the ball exceptionally well and Carlton Austin will go over 1,000 yards Friday for the second consecutive year.  Portage runs the ball most of the time and LaPorte simply has been unable to stop the run this year.  The Slicers can't beat the Indians in Portage's final home game, but they will make it close and get ready for the post-season.

Portage 28, LaPorte 21


LOWELL (8-0) at ANDREAN (3-5)

MERRILLVILLE (10-17-2008) Andrean has to go into disaster mode here.  This game is meaningless to them.  They must rest all injured players, get everybody some playing time and get ready for the 3A Sectional 17, an eight-team group they can most definitely win at full strength.  Lowell is playing for a little history.  The Devils have played football for over 100 years.  They have three (1993, 1936 and 1935) undefeated regular seasons and they were 8-0-1 in '36.  Lowell's 1,000-yard halfback Brandon Grubbe was hurt at the end of the game last week, but the Devils have two other fast halfbacks.  Both teams strength are speedy so there could be some spectacular plays here.

LOWELL 37, ANDREAN 20


CROWN POINT (3-5) at Michigan City (3-5)

MICHIGAN CITY (10-17-2008) I've picked CP wrong all year.  I thought they'd beat Chesterton and LC (they didn't) and I thought they'd lose to Merrillville and LaPorte (they won) so what do I know?  Michigan City has finally started the season.  Two weeks ago, they took Portage to overtime and the Wolves have won two of their last three.  Michigan City QB Nate Scully (80 of 147, 1,504 yards, 11 TDs) was 11 of 13 for 321 yards last week, a career-high.  But CP's defense has been run over only by Valpo and LaPorte and they have played a tougher schedule.  A wild, close game decided by a defensive TD for CP.

Crown Point 28, Michigan City 26.


Merrillville (4-4) at Chesterton (7-1)

CHESTERTON (10-17-2008) The Trojans still go with back-up QB Andy Miller and he'll face a speedy Pirate defense that scored two TDs last week in a 31-3 rout of Lake Central.  The Trojans want some history here.  Chesterton has never gone 7-0 in the DAC in football in 36 years in the league.  Power fullback Frank Raudry (5-10, 225), who scored two Chesterton TDs last week at Crown Point, is an awfully strong option fullback.  Merrillville is 17 points away from being 7-1 and the 'one' is state superpower Warren Central.  Without injured QB Chesterton Aaron Knight (177 carries, 975 yards, 9 TDS), Merrillville, which has won 9 of the last 11 from Chesterton, is the better team.

MERRILLVILLE 27, Chesterton 14


Copyright © 2008 USA-365.com and Meyer Multimedia Services, a division of Meyer Broadcasting Corp.  All rights reserved.
Revised: October 16, 2008 .