Week 9 Picks:  2007 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

October 11, 2007


 

WEEK 8, 2007 Football Picks in Review:

Wrong - 4; Right - 6 = 60.0%

The Pick The Result

Whiting 42, Clark 28  

Wrong... Clark 34-0

Lowell 28, Munster 0  

Correct... Lowell 37-19

Hobart 21, Morton 13  

Wrong... Morton 20-15

Lake Station 26, North Newton 12  

Correct... Lake Station 48-12

Wheeler 35, Bishop Noll 14  

Correct... Wheeler 44-12

LaPorte 42, Michigan City 28  

Correct... LaPorte 40-28

Portage 21, Valparaiso 20  

Correct... Portage 28-25

Merrillville 37, Lake Central 14  

Correct... Merrillville 24-3

Griffith 29, Andrean 21  

Wrong... Andrean 28-27

Chesterton 28, Crown Point 26  

Wrong... Crown Point 42-24

'On the brink week' - WEEK 8 (Eight) Recap - (10-5-2007):  The biggest surprise to me was Clark's blowout of Whiting, who averages over 30 points a game.  I don't believe Clark is quite THAT good, so Whiting really came up short here.  One team showed up for a rivalry game there.  To be blunt, Hobart should have beaten Morton.  They led 15-0 at the half.  Griffith and Andrean was a tie game and everybody knew it would be close.  Crown Point was better than they'd previously showed on defense against Chesterton.

The best pick:  Two of them.  The scores in the LaPorte-Michigan City and Portage-Valparaiso games were almost exact.  But 6 of 10 isn't really very good.
 

2007 (Week 1)  8 of 13   =  66.7%
2007 (Week 2)  8 of 11   =  72.7%
2007 (Week 3)  8 of 12   =  66.7%
2007 (Week 4)  10 of 11   =  90.9%
2007 (Week 5)  6 of 10  =  60.0%
2007 (Week 6)  6 of 10  =  60.0%
2007 (Week
7)  10 of 10  =  100.0%
2007 (Week 8)  6 of 10  =  60.0%
2007 (Overall) 62 of 87   =  70.6%
2006 (final) OVERALL :  166 of 217 = 76.4% 
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%


Northwest Indiana
WEEK 9 (NINE) PICKS, 10-12-2007

MERRILLVILLE (10-12-2007) - Here's the week that's is hard to figure because the draw works on the minds of players.  Obviously, the Merrillville-Chesterton game will be affected by the fact that Merrillville also plays Chesterton to open the playoffs on Oct. 20.  Andraen and Lowell have to rest injured players even though their game Friday (10-12-2007) is for a half-share of their league title.  Why?  Because Lowell drew Logansport (6-2) to open the playoffs and Andraen drew New Prairie (6-2).  That would be a slightly different game if those two had drawn soft foes.

On the other hand, Crown Point not only drew Munster (2-6).  They also drew a scenario where they are highly unlikely to play a home game before the sectional title game.  So, if an injured boy wants to play in his final home game, he might get a chance on Nov. 2 but you might want to get him in Friday.

Griffith and Morton play in the Sectional Nine quarterfinals so they are probably not seriously concerned with games against East Chicago and Gavit tomorrow.  Imagine how Lake Station feels?  Closing the season with Whiting (6-2) and opening the playoffs with South Newton (7-1).  How do they bounce back from the pounding they will take Friday when they know it's just as hopeless on Oct. 20?

And the question still stands.  It's almost child abuse to force 0-9 and 1-8 teams to take another butt-kicking in 45-degree weather.  No one who actually goes to sectional quarterfinal mismatches still believes that ALL Indiana football teams, even the ones who go 0-9, should reach the playoffs.  All you tell the players is that all failures will be excused and you can still get lucky and be a champion.  What a lesson?  Enlightened state athletic associations don't do that.  But Indiana has always had two feet stuck firmly 30 years in the past.

Football people:  Would you rather have a 10th regular season game or would you rather have everyone make the playoffs? Everybody answers the same way.  But the majority does not rule.  And not seeding of the tournament allows Sectional 17 co-favorites New Prairie and Andrean plus Sectional 10 co-favorites Logansport and Lowell to meet in the first round, costing the IHSAA a lot of money at the gate.  But apparently nobody cares about the game as much as they care about THEIR school.  No matter what they say, almost everybody wants a blind draw to give them a chance to avoid good teams in the sectional and win a cheap title.

If I thought I was going deep in the state tournament and there was no league title on the line Friday, I'd play the second string.  Give your starters two weeks off.  Don't think so?  Check the record of National Football League teams after a bye week and then tell me it doesn't make a difference.

If I'm Griffith, for example, I play second stringers against East Chicago, a nonconference foe on the road.  Those kids deserve to play and I hope to be playing at least four weeks after Friday.  Morton, too.  Why play regulars against Gavit when you open the playoffs with powerful Griffith?  If I'm Portage and LC, I do the same.  As long as all teams make the playoffs, why play starters in a meaningless 'week nine' game?  Let the bench play.  And why should fans (other than parents) show up if the games mean nothing?  It'll be 45 degrees Friday night.  But since everyone makes the playoffs and almost no one can win an outright league title in the final week, what's the argument for fans to go watch the games?

The format needs change and it's coming.  There were 316 teams in the playoffs this year.  When that number get to 321 (probably in two years), the structure of the playoffs must change.  Hopefully for the better.

There are several mismatches in week nine.  Out of respect for the next of kin, I will not pick Whiting-Lake Station, Roosevelt-Wirt, Gavit-Morton, Hobart-Highland, Marian-Lew Wallace, River Forest-South Central, and Bishop Noll-North Newton.  Those seven mismatches are about as lame as an episode of 'Cavemen' on ABC.  The object again here is not to be picking NASCAR events and pick Jeff Gordon to win every week.  The idea is to hang on with a loser like Dale Earnhardt Jr. and guess when he'll finally win.


Munster (2-6) at Kankakee Valley (3-5)

DeMOTTE - KV's running game against the passing of Joe Gill and Munster.  The Kougars have obviously rebounded from four shutouts.  They led Andean by 19 before losing and they crushed Highland.  Drawing Crown Point to start the playoffs has to be a little ominous for Munster.  It's an early winter for the Mustangs down in Jasper County.

Kankakee Valley 21, Munster 14


Michigan City (2-6) at Crown Point (6-2)

CROWN POINT -  Michigan City QB Nate Scully threw for 323 yards last week and Crown Point has injuries in the secondary.  But I know what you're saying.  The Wolves have about as much chance to win here as John Edwards does of being elected president.  Russell Chick has run for 100 yards in every game this year.  It's a contrast of styles, but CP's running style should win out on a cold October night.

Crown Point 38, Michigan City 17


Wheeler (7-1) at Calumet (4-4)

GARY -  Calumet's hit a three-game losing streak, but they can run the ball and the weather may suggest that.  Wheeler averages 45 points a game in the weak South Shore Conference, and unless they fumble 10 times like they did against Kankakee Valley, they should win decisively.

Wheeler 42, Calumet 21


Griffith (5-3) at East Chicago (5-3)

EAST CHICAGO - I was surprised that EC won at Jay County last week and the independent schedule hasn't hurt them.  Facing Griffith the week after an overtime loss may hurt, though.  The Cardinals don't stop the run very well and Griffith has played a much superior schedule.  EC hasn't lost to any team that's not good and that continues Friday.

Griffith 41, East Chicago 20


K
nox (5-3) at New Prairie (6-2)

NEW CARLISLE - This is the weather that the 99% ground attack of New Prairie has been waiting for.  The Cougars are better as the weather gets worse.  Knox hasn't beaten anybody who isn't 1A or 2A.  New Prairie has lost only to 5A LaPorte and 2A No. 1 Jimtown and they dominate here.  Look for the Andrean scouts in the stands.

New Prairie 51, Knox 12


Lake Central (5-3) at Valparaiso (4-4)

VALPARAISO - This is the second toughest game to pick this week.  Lake Central really doesn't have a significant win this year, but Valparaiso has allowed more points than they've scored.  The Indians need to bully the Valpo defensive front, which has allowed over 300 yards a game.  But LC has major defensive problems and everybody's scoring on them, too.  Nobody's really stopped Valpo on offense for four quarters.

Valparaiso 35, Lake Central 28


Portage (4-4) at LaPorte (3-5)

LaPORTE - Portage has rebounded the last two weeks to beat Michigan City and Valpo, while LaPorte broke a 4-game losing streak against MC last week.  Nobody in the DAC has stopped the Slicers' multiple offense.  They've scored 20 or more in every league game and nobody else can say that.  But Portage still has an outstanding defense, and let's go back to the start of the year.  Who had the better team?

Portage 23, LaPorte 20


Chesterton (6-2) at Merrillville (7-1)

MERRILLVILLE - The Trojans have to forget last week's 18-point home loss to Crown Point and try to mount an offense against the very fast Pirates.  LC was held to 76 yards rushing last week by Merrillville and Chesterton QB Alex Beierwalter will be confronted by senior cornerback DeMarreo Richardson, who has eight interceptions.  If the Trojans run the ball this game stays close.

Merrillville 26, Chesterton 20


Andrean (6-2) at Lowell (7-1)

LOWELL - A fine matchup of teams that can't meet again in the playoffs.  Both sides have to be thinking about big-time opponents in the sectional on Oct. 19.  Lowell QB Kurt Monix passed for 150 yards and two TDs last week.  Niner QB Austin Sutter has been an excellent leader all season and the 59er defense doesn't give up much on the ground.  But can Andrean move the ball on the ground on a cold night against a fast defense?

Lowell 19, Andrean 14


Clark (6-2) at Hammond (7-1)

HAMMOND - The toughest game on the board to pick.  Clark has allowed just 40 points all season, although they have not played a difficult schedule at all.  Hammond's slate has not been much tougher, but they've been over 30 points six times.  Hammond played, and was competitive against Lowell, while Clark hasn't met anyone of Lowell's caliber.  Hammond beat Morton 14-13.  Clark lost to Morton 14-12.  Clark beat Gavit 57-0.  Hammond beat Gavit 75-20.  It cant get much closer than that.  I think Hammond's a step quicker and they don't need to throw to win.  If the Hammond fans show up and stay for four quarters, they'll lift their team.  The biggest number again, will be in the stands.  Will Hammond fans show up for a legitimate showdown?

Hammond 21, Clark 14
 

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Revised: October 11, 2007 .