Week 7 Picks - 2010 NW Indiana High School Football
A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith
September 30, 2010
'Mr. Picker' WEEK 6, 2010 Football Picks in Review:
Wrong - 4; Right - 5 = 55.0%The Pick The Result Calumet 28, Noll 14
WRONG ... Calumet 27-24
Whiting 31, North Newton 14
Whiting 22-21
Clark 62, Bowman 36
Clark 60-26
Chesterton 17, Portage 14
WRONG ... Portage 34-20
Merrillville 40, LaPorte 31
Merrillville 42-41 (OT)
Lake Central 28, Michigan City 12
LC 31-0
LOWELL 21, Hobart 17
WRONG ... Hobart 42-41
ANDREAN 21, Griffith 7
ANDREAN 27-10
CROWN POINT 30, Valparaiso 19
WRONG ... Valpo 10-7
2010, Week-6: 5 of 9 = 55.0%
2010, Week-5: 5 of 10 = 50.0%
2010, Week-4: 8 of 10 = 80.0%
2010, Week-3: 8 of 11 = 72.7%
2010, Week-2: 8 of 10 = 80.0%
2010, Week-1: 8 of 12 = 66.7%
2010 Season: 42 of 62 = 67.6%
Mr. Picker (Through the Years)
2009 (final) OVERALL: 154 of 212 = 72.6%
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%WEEK SIX (6) Analysis: Not a good week. First of all, I didn't pick the Rensselaer-West Lafayette game which would have been a win for Rensselaer (and me). Sometimes you forget. I lost three games by a total of seven points and I'm not sure I would make the same picks again. Calumet may have been the first team in the history of NW Indiana high school football to have three boys rush for 100 yards in a game they lost, 27-24 to Bishop Noll. Calumet gained 482 yards on 66 carries. Certainly, Lowell is a better team than Hobart. Truthfully, if Chesterton meets Portage again, I'd probably pick Chesterton again. For you hard-core broken down 'pickers' out there, last week was a week where you don't control the game, the game controls you. Best pick of the week: Clark over Bowman by a very high score very similar to what actually occurred.
WEEK SEVEN (10-01-2010): Usually you don't get a splash of upsets two weeks in a row, so things may return to form this week. Along that line of thinking is that we have run into a stretch of perfect weather. Cool temperatures and dry fields. Teams that had been downgraded by those of us who care in the early going (Portage and Hobart) rose up. Both times it was due to a great game by a running back - the great equalizer.
Looking at who has that one runner who could turn a game around... Obviously, Hobart and 1,000-yard man Jamar Merritt. Portage with DAC MVP Jake Dixon. But Denzel Pierce, especially on artificial turf, can always make the difference. Big Ben Ahlers of Rensselaer is a physical game changer and Morton's Kalyn Aaron can run 6 times in a row and change the game. Lowell's Cole Midgett, who ran for a school-record 312 yards last week, is a 'poor man's Jake Dixon. The ultimate one-man gang is LaPorte's Nick Latchford, who has gained 1,000 yards for the second year in a row.
Traditionally in this area, passing teams that excel early, tend to fade in November. That would indicate trouble for Wheeler, Hammond, Gary West Side and maybe Morton.
But when you look at Hobart, which completed 24 passes in five games and then gained almost 300 yards passing last week. You don't always know what some QBs have that they have not yet shown.
Incidentally, last week I said that Lew Wallace (1-5), which had lost 12 games in a row, should consider disbanding the program in the cash-poor Gary school system. You may know that Wallace went out and defeated Roosevelt 28-0. Wow! Then you notice that Roosevelt is 1-20 in the last three years. Gary needs ONE high school. They should combine Wallace, Roosevelt and West Side into one brand new building. I'm not the first to suggest this and athletics would be the least high priority. But imagine what one Gary public high school could do on the football field.I'm not going to imagine what some schools will do this week. Let's leave out Andrean's game with Kankakee Valley (0-6). Michigan City (1-5) has as much hope of beating Portage as Ozzie Guillen does of ever being manager of the Cubs. Gary West Side (2-4) has no hope at Morton (5-1) and I can't pick Wheeler (6-0) at Lake Station (1-5). I just can't. Rensselaer will have a very nice trip to Delphi (1-5). And Bowman Academy is giving up 50 points a game. They need to leave the bus idling in the parking lot at Yorktown.
All games are played on Friday night this week. And we wonder why attendance is down. Only two weeks to the showdown of Boone Grove (0-0), in their first real IHSAA game ever at South Newton (0-6). Too late to move it to Saturday? It's not like Boone has a JV.
WEEK (7) SEVEN
North Newton (2-4) at South Central (4-2)UNION MILLS (10-1-2010) North Newton was one play away from beating Whiting last week in a 22-21 loss. But South Central could be 6-0. They've lost only to 1A Top-10 Culver and 2A Top-10 Wheeler, when they had three players suspended. This game isn't that close.
South Central 42, North Newton 16
Gavit (2-4) at Clark (4-2)HAMMOND (10-1-2010) Gavit has come alive in the last two weeks after an 0-4 start, but Clark can pour on the points as they did at Bowman last Friday. Gavit gives up far too many points (over 30 per game) to win here and Clark won't overlook a city rival.
Clark 51, Gavit 20
Whiting (3-3) at Calumet (3-3)GARY (10-1-2010) Calumet had Marquis Carlton (12-113 yards), Chakese Whitfield (18 carries, 154 yards) and Justin Agee (25 carries, 172 yards) gain 100+ yards last week. They'd win this game in a rainstorm. But the forecast is clear and cool and Whiting has a multiple offense.
Whiting 35, Calumet 21
River Forest (3-3) at Bishop Noll (2-4)HAMMOND (10-1-2010) Noll's allowed 44 points a game, but what's happened to River Forest losing 105-0 the last two weeks? Noll has been very up and down, but consecutive shutouts after a 3-0 start indicates that something (or somebody) is now missing at River Forest.
Bishop Noll 28, River Forest 0
Hobart (3-3) at Munster (4-2)MUNSTER (10-1-2010) Munster has to wonder what they're getting into. Hobart's Sam Kosich ran for 300 yards last week? Hobart's Jamar Merritt ran for 200 yards? Munster just doesn't score many points against good teams. Here's the upset of the week. On the artificial turf, the Brickies' revival continues.
Hobart 28, Munster 21
Lowell (3-3) at Hammond (2-4)HAMMOND (10-1-2010) Hammond has won twice, but both times against Gary city schools. The argument here is that Antwoin McGee, Hammond's 3-year QB, can smoke Lowell's secondary, which has been shelled by Hobart and Morton. Maybe. But Lowell is averaging 30 points a game and they haven't lost two games in a row in the same season since 2006. Lowell needs to win AND play well.
Lowell 42, Hammond 6
East Chicago (2-4) at Lew Wallace (1-4)GARY (10-1-2010) This would be a good basketball game. But not football. Not in October. Wallace has as much chance to win here as Bristol Palin does on Dancing with the Stars. East Chicago is a much better dancer. Warm up the scoreboard.
East Chicago 55, Lew Wallace 18
Highland (1-5) at Griffith (3-3)GARY (10-1-2010) You wonder when the small roster of Griffith will show up and it might be here against a team they have no rivalry with. Highland's giving up 35 points a game, but they might have a moment. This could be close.
Griffith 42, Highland 31
Chesterton (4-2) at Lake Central (2-4)ST. JOHN (10-1-2010) LC won 31-0 at Michigan City last week and some will pick them to hand Chesterton a third consecutive loss. But then some will pick the Bulls to win the NBA title, too. Just say no. The Trojans are too physical for Lake Central.
Chesterton 27, Lake Central 17
Crown Point (4-2) at LaPorte (3-3)
LaPORTE (10-1-2010) Traditionally, everybody has problems at LaPorte (the Slicers are 23-11 at home in 6 years) but 1,000-yard rusher Nick Latchford may not play. CP really should be 6-0 and their defense is allowing just 14 points a game. The question is: Are their two close losses frustration or motivation?Crown Point 27, LaPorte 14
Valparaiso (6-0) at Merrillville (5-1)MERRILLVILLE (10-1-2010) Both teams have tests remaining after this game, but we'll have an undisputed 1st place team in the DAC after Friday. Nobody REALLY knows here, but I like the kicker of Valpo, Sam Ficken, to make the difference with two field goals.
Valparaiso 27, MERRILLVILLE 21
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