Week 4 Picks - 2012 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

September 7, 2012
 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK-3, 2012 Football Picks in Review:
Aug. 31-Sept. 1, 2012

Wrong - 2; Right - 10 = 83.3%

The Pick The Result

MUNSTER 27, Highland 17  

Munster 26-6

HAMMOND 40, Bowman Academy 28  

Hammond 48-18

River Forest 35, Lake Station 14  

(wrong) Lake Station 26-14

NORTH NEWTON 42, Calumet 21  

North Newton 48-13

VALPARAISO 42, LaPORTE 14  

Valpo 55-10

EC 30, GARY ROOSEVELT 14  

East Chicago 32-20

RENSSELAER 21, NORTH JUDSON 14  

Rensselaer 21-14

HOBART 30, GRIFFITH 27  

Hobart 38-13

LAKE CENTRAL 35, PORTAGE 17  

LC 40-17

MORTON 41, CLARK 12  

Morton 47-20

LOWELL 20, KANKAKEE VALLEY 7  

(wrong) KV 17-7

MERRILLVILLE 37, CROWN POINT 31  

Merrillville 40-12

 

2012 Regular Season, three-weeks: 31 of 36 = 86.1%

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)
2011 (final) OVERALL: 134 of 184 = 72.7%
2010 (final) OVERALL: 135 of 184 = 73.3%
2009 (final) OVERALL: 154 of 212 = 72.6%
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%


WEEK (3) THREE ANALYSIS:
Got to tip the cap to Lake Station, which rose from two hard losses to upset arch-rival River Forest. I could not have predicted that. Obviously KV's win over Lowell was spawned when Lowell rushing and scoring leader George Fields was injured. But most other picks were not only correct, they've been in the score range. It's been a good start to the 'Picker' season.

BEST PICK: Hobart over Griffith was a good one. That game was somewhat even going in. I had Morton over Clark by 29 and they won by 27. LC over Portage 35-17 and they won 40-17. But it's rare to pick an exact score and Rensselaer did beat North Judson 21-14, exactly as was predicted. No complaints here.

 


WEEK 4 (09-07-2012) Let's leave out Morton over Highland, Valparaiso at Michigan City and undefeated Chesterton at winless LaPorte. Those are not competitive games.
I'm going to respectfully not pick Gary West Side at Riverside Brookfield, Hammond at Indianapolis Tech or Bowman at Indianapolis Howe. There's no way to know what they're getting into. There aren't many major match-ups this week, but there are some must-win games for more than one team. Several others are like the Bears and Colts. I know who is supposed to win, but as game-time approaches, I'm not totally sure.


WEEK (4)
FOUR


Bishop Noll (0-3) at Lake Station (1-2)


LAKE STATION (09-07-2012)
Noll has only scored 31 points all season and Lake Station rose up to smack down arch rival River Forest last week. Big sophomore Kyle Gooch (6-0, 210) gained 156 yards on 26 carries, but LS is 10-64 in the last 74 games. Noll had just three first downs, but the question is how much of a 'bump' will LS get from last week's rare win? The Eagles only have 23 players. Stay with the home team in a close one.
 

LAKE STATION 20, BISHOP NOLL 14


East Chicago (2-1) at Gavit (1-2)


HAMMOND (09-07-2012)
Gavit has lost two in a row on the road, but they come home to welcome EC, which features two-way star Martayveus Carter (5-11, 200) a multi-purpose runner and defender who missed last week's EC win on a one-game suspension. EC struggled with Roosevelt last week, while Gavit switched to a new QB Tashon Rogers and barely lost 21-18 at South Bend Riley. Both teams will be better than last week.
 

EC 35, GAVIT 20


Munster (1-2) at Andrean (2-1)


MERRILLVILLE (09-07-2012)
Munster won for the first time last week, leading 26-0 at halftime with sophomore Seth Gutwein scoring two TDs. The 59ers have a short week after playing Saturday at Gary West Side. Andrean halfback Shamir Johnson (32 carries, 263 yards) missed last week's game with a sprained ankle and it's not certain if he'll be back.
 

ANDREAN 31, Munster 14


Whiting (3-0) at South Central (3-0)
 

UNION MILLS (09-07-2012) A surprising match up of undefeated teams. Whiting has scored 130 points in three games, but SC has allowed just 27 points. SC's Sturdy brothers, QB Kyle Sturdy (6-1, 185) and HB Alec Sturdy (6-0, 215) both ran for over 100 yards last week against Noll, but they have to keep the ball away from Whiting QB Al Veloz who was 13 of 18 for 226 yards last week in a 34-7 rout of Wheeler. Whiting is walking into hostile territory here and field conditions will play a factor.
 

SOUTH CENTRAL 27, Whiting 24


NORTH JUDSON (2-1) at BOONE GROVE (3-0)
 

VALPARAISO (09-07-2012) This game is one-sided only if you don't look at it closely. Boone has played and defeated three teams that combined have not won a single game. Judson lost a tough one to rival Rensselaer last week. Boone's Cody Poynter has carried 72 times for 568 yards, but Judson has played a real schedule.
 

JUDSON 28, BOONE GROVE 14


Merrillville (2-1) at Portage (1-2)
 

PORTAGE (09-07-2012) Portage upset Merrillville 17-16 last year in Merrillville, but the Pirates have scored 90 points the last two weeks against Andrean and Crown Point. Portage is home, but they had problems stopping LC's David Yancey last week and the Pirates run AND throw.
 

MERRILLVILLE 44, Portage 21


LOWELL (1-2) at Griffith (1-2)
 

GRIFFITH (09-07-2012) Hard running teams collide on what could be a muddy field. Lowell missed top runner George Fields, who was injured and missed the final three quarters of last week's 17-7 home loss to KV. Griffith lost four fumbles in a 38-13 loss at Hobart, but they actually out-gained the Brickies 289-224. Both of these teams are much better defensively than they are on offense.
 

GRIFFITH 13, LOWELL 10


Rensselaer (2-1) at Tipton (3-0)
 

TIPTON (09-07-2012) The Bombers have come back strong after a 10-point opening night loss to undefeated KV (3-0). Few of us have had the pleasure to drive from Rensselaer through four counties to get to Tipton County. I'm told it's a rare way to 'wander Indiana'. But the Class 2A No. 5 Blue Devils aren't always good hosts. Tipton has a 19-14 victory over 3A No. 9 Hamilton Heights and they have a strong offensive line. This is just a tough assignment.
 

TIPTON 35, Rensselaer 16


Lake Central (3-0) at Crown Point (2-1)
 

CROWN POINT (09-07-2012) LC has scored 40 points or more in each of the first three games and Crown Point has allowed 600 yards rushing in three games. CP must contain David Yancey (46 carries, 480 yards) who has rushed for nine TDs. But LC can't just dare CP QB Jake Jatis (32 of 61, 570 yards, 5 TDs) to throw like they could against their first three foes. If there is an upset in week three, here it is.
 

CROWN POINT 31, LC 21


Hobart (2-1) at Kankakee Valley (3-0)
 

WHEATFIELD (09-07-2012) The Kougars have scored rare wins over Rensselaer and Lowell and they return home to take on Hobart, which is averaging 37 points in the first three weeks. KV has shown a quick defense that won't give up 37 points, but Hobart has played well all three weeks and they are noticeably bigger than KV. The Kougars' inability to throw the ball has to catch up to them and Hobart worked against a KV-style wishbone attack last week against Griffith. I don't know that this is an upset.
 

HOBART 26, KV 17

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Revised: September 06, 2012 .