Week 3 Picks:  2009 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

August 31, 2009


 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK TWO (2), 2009 Football Picks in Review:

Wrong - 2; Right - 12 = 85.7%;  Season: 23-8, 75.8%

The Pick The Result

Clark 34, Calumet 20  

Clark 15-12

Hammond 28, Highland 16  

*WRONG... Highland 15-13

MICHIGAN CITY 42, Washington 21  

MICHIGAN CITY 13-10

Wheeler 30, Kankakee Valley 14  

Wheeler 35-8  

Rensselaer 41, North Newton 14  

Rensselaer 60-7

West Side 48, Roosevelt 18  

Gary West Side 55-12

Valparaiso 35, Griffith 7  

Valparaiso 51-6

CROWN POINT 20, Hobart 14  

CROWN POINT 14-7

Whiting 35, Gavit 28  

Whiting 59-0

MERRILLVILLE 21, ANDREAN 20  

MERRILLVILLE 28-14

Morton 28, LOWELL 24  

*WRONG... LOWELL 34-25

LaPorte 44, Elkhart Central 28  

LaPorte 47-25

TF North 33, Bowman 12  

TF North 61-12

St. Rita 28, Portage 21  

St. Rita 35-20


WEEK (2) TWO ANALYSIS:  The theory to stay with week one losers if they faced elite competition paid off as Merrillville and Valpo bounced back.  Gary West Side's strength in week one against Hobart proved real as did LaPorte's offensive power.  I'm surprised Clark has had to rally to win two weeks in a row.  I may have them overrated.  The point totals were high as teams got a grip on what they can do and the wonderfully cool weather made it easy to go hard for four quarters.  In week two, when Northwest Indiana teams stepped out of the area, they got a beat down.  Even River Forest went to Eau Claire, Michigan Friday and took a 39-0 spanking.  Home teams also were victors most of the time in the second week.

 

The worst pick of the week was obviously Hammond over Highland.  You normally don't go that way.  Even a winless Highland usually is stronger than the Wildcats and that's the way it turned out.  Morton did lead Lowell 13-0 before losing 34-25, but without halfback Brandon Grubbe playing for Lowell, that still seemed like a logical upset pick.  There are very few weeks when there' no upsets at all, and when you have reasons, you have to be bold enough to pick 'em.

 

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)

2008 (final) OVERALL:  145 of 193 = 75.1%

2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%


Northwest Indiana WEEK-THREE (3) PICKS, 09-04-2009
 

For week three, I'm leaving out Lew Wallace at (LaPorte) LaLumiere.  Wallace is not competitive.  Also, scratch Gary Roosevelt (0-2) at Thornridge.  That's a long walk for a short drink of water.  I'm not going to pretend to know (Chicago) Kenwood at Hammond or (Chicago) Robeson at Gary West Side.  Many of the Chicago schools are as hard to find information about as the Gary schools.

 

All local teams except Bowman Academy (they host something called Golden Prep School Saturday night at 6:00 p.m. at Wirt) stick to Friday night starting this week and we get into conference play.  Take those five games off the board and let's go in the first week that really matters.  Almost everybody gets a new lease on life.  But, like guys who pitch for the White Sox lately, it may be a short lease.

 

 

North Newton (0-2) at Calumet (1-1)

GARY (9-4-2009)
North Newton has allowed almost 750 total yards and 103 points in two weeks.  Calumet's led both games in the fourth quarter so far this year and they should be 2-0. Four turnovers cost them last week in a 15-12 loss at Clark.  The Warriors need to run the ball better and they should be able to do it in week three.

 

Calumet 28, North Newton 14

 

East Chicago (0-2) at ANDREAN (1-1)
 

MERRILLVILLE (9-4-2009) The Cardinals have lost to Hammond and LC and have put just 12 points on the board so far.  Clearly, they are having offensive line problems.  Andrean appeared to survive the 28-14 loss to Merrillville and they need to get back to winning here in a week three non-conference game.  This still appears to be one of Andrean's better teams.

 

ANDREAN 35, East Chicago 12

 

Gavit (0-2) at (South Bend) Riley (0-2)
 

SOUTH BEND (9-4-2009) The Gladiators are highly-regarded but this team has become their major rival.  Riley has lost two fairly close ones to decent teams Northridge and Marian.  Gavit should not have lost 59-0 to Whiting.  That's a big 'red flag' here.  Especially with Gavit taking a 2-hour bus ride.

 

Riley 40, Gavit 8

 

Bishop Noll (0-2) at South Central (0-2)
 

UNION MILLS (9-4-2009) Noll's allowed 125 points in two weeks, but SC is 0-2 against Class 1A schools.  I don't know what's the problem at South Central.  I was confident they could run at the start of the year.  This is a shaky pick because Noll has played MUCH tougher teams so far.

 

South Central 28, Noll 26

 

Whiting (1-1) at Wheeler (2-0)
 

UNION TOWNSHIP (9-4-2009) Wheeler has scored 76 points the first two weeks, but Whiting has scored 80 and they're a late interception away from being 2-0 as well.  Does anybody know that the Wheeler boys have won 18 consecutive regular season games?  I think Whiting does.  This game was 58-6 last year, but the Oilers make it much closer this time.

 

Wheeler 42, Whiting 21

 

River Forest (0-2) at Lake Station (0-2)
 

LAKE STATION (9-4-2009) The cliche' is "throw out the records when these two meet!!!!" and both sides will be happy to do that because so far, they've both been whipped like a government mule.  Lake Station's been outscored 89-0 while River Forest has just one TD against Bowman.  I thought River Forest was improved this year and I like them to win on the road in the "Hillbilly Super Bowl."

 

River Forest 20, Lake Station 12

 

Rensselaer (2-0) at North Judson (2-0)
 

NORTH JUDSON (9-4-2009) The Bombers are highly-regarded but this team has become their major rival.  The Judds have run the ball well for two weeks, but Rensselaer can force you to throw.  Big rivals here.  They usually meet twice a season.  Rensselaer has won seven of the last 11 and they have too much running power here.

 

Rensselaer 16, North Judson 7

 

Highland (1-1) at Munster (2-0)
 

MUNSTER (9-4-2009) This looks like a mismatch and it may be, but Highland has new life after their first win in two seasons last week.  Even though this a game of arch rivals, which usually makes it closer than it should be, I think the only challenge here is to pick the score.  Munster is very strong on offense.  QB Mark Strbjak has thrown seven TD passes in two games.

 

Munster 35, Highland 7

 

LOWELL (2-0) at Kankakee Valley (0-2)
 

DeMOTTE (9-4-2009) The only reason I'm picking this game is because of the questionable availability of halfback Brandon Grubbe, who sat out Lowell's 34-25 win at Morton last week. Usually, you sit out one week with a concussion, but KV has been outscored 69-15 in the first two weeks and I'm not sure how much Grubbe plays this Friday either.  KV isn't as bad as the scores indicate.  But you have to throw the ball to beat Lowell and KV hasn't shown they can do that yet.

 

LOWELL 35, KV 13

 

Hobart (1-1) at Griffith (0-2)
 

GRIFFITH (9-4-2009) This is one of the toughest games on the board to pick because Griffith is a proud program that's getting smoked so far this year.  Will they be 0-3 by Saturday? Hobart has the running game with Richard Oglesby to win here and the Panthers are shorthanded without halfback Ed Johnson for three more games.  I'm wary of picking against Griffith at home and neither team can throw the ball.  But Hobart has to be confident after giving up just 26 points in the first two weeks.  I like the Brickies by a field goal.

 

Hobart 17, Griffith 14

 

Portage (1-1) at Lake Central (1-1)
 

ST. JOHN (9-4-2009) Portage will be working on a short week after losing 35-20 Saturday night to St. Rita.  LC has only scored three TDs in two games.  St. Rita ran for 300 yards against Portage, but LC doesn't have a running game like that.  The Portage double threat of Zach Huston and Jake Dixon is going to be very formidable the next two years.

 

Portage 28, Lake Central 14

 

Valparaiso (1-1) at LaPorte (2-0)
 

LaPORTE (9-4-2009) LaPorte has scored 40 or more in each of the first two weeks, but they know it'll be much tougher this week.  Valpo's defense scored two TDs last week in a 61-7 victory over Griffith.  There's a theory that Valpo has offensive line problems, but Griffith could find no evidence of that last week.  This is traditionally a high-scoring game and it will be again.  Get your popcorn ready.

 

Valparaiso 44, LaPorte 35

 

Chesterton (2-0) at Michigan City (2-0)
 

MICHIGAN CITY (9-4-2009) Chesterton has shut out New Prairie and Lew Wallace, but Michigan City is better than either.  MC had little offense in a 13-10 win over South Bend Washington, but they've clearly been pointing to this game, the DAC opener.  Chesterton may be the better team, but if there's an upset this week, here it is.

 

Michigan City 20, Chesterton 14


MERRILLVILLE (1-1) at CROWN POINT (1-1)
 

CROWN POINT (9-4-2009) The Bulldogs showed flashes of a good offense last week in the 14-7 victory over Hobart, but they didn't post as many yards or points as they should.  Merrillville got injured HB Denzel Pierce back in a 28-14 win over Andrean last week, but CP's 3-5-3 defense always gives the Pirates trouble and this is a match up of your QBs.  Merrillville is the better team, but you can throw on them.  This will be a surprisingly high-scoring game.

 

MERRILLVILLE 30, CROWN POINT 21


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Revised: September 07, 2009 .