Week 2 Picks:  2008 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

August 26, 2008

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK 1, 2008 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 3; Right - 9 = 75.0%
The Pick	The Result
North Newton 28, South Newton 20	Wrong... South Newton 28-0
Munster 20, Lake Central 14	Wrong... LC 20-19
Wheeler 30, Highland 21	Correct... Wheeler 48-12
Rensselaer 20, Kankakee Valley 14	Correct... Rensselaer 35-14
LaPorte 42, New Prairie 28	Correct... LaPorte 35-14
Penn 28, Valparaiso 21	Wrong... Valpo 10-9 (OT)
Noll  35,  Gavit 30	Correct... Noll 33-20
Portage 31, ANDREAN 30	Correct... Portage 40-7
East Chicago 44, Hammond 31	Correct... East Chicago 28-0
Griffith 42, Morton 16	Correct... Griffith 40-13
LOWELL 27, CROWN POINT 16	Correct... LOWELL 7-0
Warren Central 35, MERRILLVILLE 17	Correct... Warren Central 42-0

 

 

WEEK-ONE (1) RECAP from Friday, August 22, 2008:  The North Newton pick was a long shot and the Munster selection would have been an upset.  The only big surprise is that Valparaiso, which has been a .500 team for 3 seasons, beat a Penn team that was 12-1 in 2007.  I don't know what that says about Penn, but it's a big lift for Valparaiso.  After this week's gift win over totally out-manned Roosevelt, Valpo has three of the next four at home.  It isn't impossible that they'd be 5-0 when they see Crown Point and Merrillville in September.

 

I don't think there's 4 TDs difference between Griffith and Morton.  But the Panthers are always more difficult to handle than most teams at the start of the year because of their option offense which is hard to simulate in the pre-season.  To get 9-of-12 in the first week, not selecting the blowouts is pretty good to start with.

 

'Mr. Picker's Recent Picking Record

2008 (Week 1)  9 of 12   =  75.0%

2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

MERRILLVILLE (08-29-2008) - Week two is usually fairly friendly for 'Mr. Picker' because you have a track record and some accurate information of who's playing and who's not.  Again, you can't be taken seriously if you pick Valparaiso-Gary Roosevelt, North Newton-Rensselaer, Portage-Highland, Chesterton-West Ottawa (Mich) or Eau Claire, Michigan at River Forest.

Those games aren't even matches and that's what we're looking for here.  The weather may ease in week two, so games may be played in the mid to lower 60s as opposed to the upper 70s and low 80s like last week.  Keep in mind many teams are still looking to fill positions before the conference seasons begin in week three.

Mishawaka (1-0) at LaPorte (1-0)

LaPORTE (8-29-2008)  Mishawaka's defense held DeKalb to 151 yards  in a 29-15 victory so they'll be geared up to handle LaPorte tailback Carlton Austin who gained 190 yards and 2 TDs on 17 carries. Mishawaka QB Matt Zbziebko left last week's game in the first quarter and did not return.  Mishawaka completed ONE pass last week. That wont get it done this week on the road and Dustin DeMuth (5-of-9, 134 yards , 2 TDs) is NW Indiana's top junior QB.

LaPorte 28, Mishawaka 14

Michigan City (1-0) at (SB) Washington  (1-0)

SOUTH BEND (8-29-2008) This is a meaningless non-conference game, but Michigan City can't lose this one and this is not a gift.  Washington broke a 12-game losing streak with a 20-19 upset of Mishawaka Marian.  Washington has a new offense and they also have Jarrett Fleming (6-6, 195) who can go all the way on any play.  he scored two TDs last week.  MC won 60-6 last week over Roosevelt, but that wasn't a real game.  You have to run the ball to beat a spread offense.  Nobody can stop anybody here.  This one will get wild.

Michigan City 41, (SB) Washington 33

Wheeler (1-0) at Kankakee Valley (0-1)

DeMOTTE (8-29-2008)  Wheeler ran wild in week one, but Highland is shorthanded right now.  KV lost by 21 to Rensselaer, but Rensselaer's line is worthy of a 4A team.   Wheeler has a powerful offensive team, but KV has a solid core returning.  With new starting QB Zach Overby playing for the second week, KV can cut down on the four turnovers in week one.  I'm not big on teams that must take long Friday evening bus rides.  I think the Kougars pull a minor upset here.

Kankakee Valley 27, Wheeler 20

Bishop Noll (1-0) at Andrean (0-1)

MERRILLVILLE (8-29-2008)  I do not remember Noll's last win over Andrean (it came in 1996), but I'm not sure the 59ers' 40-7 loss to Portage means Noll is favored here.  It doesn't.  The Warriors raced to a 27-0 lead on Gavit behind QB Eric Escamilla and beat Gavit 33-20, but Noll gave up 247 rushing yards.  Andrean only got 33 totals yards against Portage and with Demitri Blanco and Kyle Kovach, they cannot possibly be that bad.  If Andrean makes six turnovers like they did last week, they'll get beat.  But that isn't going to happen at home against an arch rival.

ANDREAN 35,  Bishop Noll 21

Lake Central (1-0) at East Chicago (0-1)

EAST CHICAGO (8-29-2008)  LC rallied from a 19-7 deficit to win 20-19 over Munster last week and I was very surprised they rushed for only 44 yards last week.  East Chicago blitzed an all-new Hammond high team 28-0 last week, but that won't matter on this night.  EC ran for 280 yards against Hammond, but they'll have to throw against a much larger LC squad.  This one will be close.  There's no excuse for an LC team with a line averaging 250 pounds a man not being able to run the football.

Lake Central 34, East Chicago 27

Clark(1-0) at Calumet (0-1)

GARY (8-29-2008)  Both Clark and Calumet whipped out-manned Gary city schools last week, so this is when it gets real.  New Clark QB Micah Rooke will be a prime-time player and I'm sure the Pioneers can cut down on the three turnovers and 13 penalties they had last week.  Calumet will run on Clark, but they can't do enough.  Calumet would win this game in late season cold weather, but it'll be 70 and breezy Friday.

Clark 35, Calumet 24

Gary West Side (0-1) at Hammond (0-1)

HAMMOND (8-29-2008)  Hammond had no offense against East Chicago last week, but Gary West Side got steamrollered against Hobart.  Hammond was surpassingly bad with 120 yards in penalties while West Side simply had no chance against the Brickies.  The Wildcats will get started early this week and they win a track meet.  If Gary teams didn't play each other, they'd all go 0-9.

Hammond 46, Gary West Side 20

Morton (0-1) at LOWELL (1-0)

LOWELL (8-28-2008) Lowell survived some offensive mistakes in their season opener last week and they feel good about returning home to their renovated home field.  The Governors gave up 400 yards rushing and that is a serious concern facing one of the state's premier runners in Brandon Grubbe.  Lowell's defensive ends are new and Morton can move the ball here.  But Lowell has as much offense as they've had since the 2004 team had both Toby Goetz and Jeff Clemens.  I predict that Lowell will score at least 14 points in every game the rest of the way.  Here's another high scoring game.

LOWELL 49, Morton 21

CROWN POINT (0-1) at Hobart (1-0)

HOBART (8-29-2008) This is Crown Point's final game in the 69-year-old Brickie Bowl and they badly need a win because they have a lot of new starters.  Hobart surely recalls CP's last second 22-20 win over the Brickies last year.  Hobart held a couple of boys out of action last week to make sure they'll be ready to go in the home opener.  CP's Marcus Shrewsbury had a good debut last week with 10-of-18 passing.  Hobart has senior Matt Barras throwing to Bobby James, but the secondary is CP's strength.  Hobart should win this game, but the Brickies don't seem to have any luck in the close ones.

CROWN POINT 19, Hobart 17

MERRILLVILLE (0-1) at Griffith (1-0)

GRIFFITH (8-29-2008) Merrillville got smoked 42-0 by Warren Central last week, but Griffith isn't Warren Central.  The new man in the Griffith option is 'Easy Ed' Johnson who eased on down the road for 96 yards on 18 carries.  This is a high-profile game with two teams who rarely meet and the Panther defense should bother the questionable Pirate offensive line.  This looks like a duel between Griffith kicker Jacob Melton and Merrillville's Ryan Stokes, but the worst thing that could have happened to Griffith was Merrillville's 6-TD loss last week.  Griffith should not even watch the tape of the Merrillville game last week because they do not have a spread offense like WC and they will not see the same team.

MERRILLVILLE 23, Griffith 9



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Revised: August 26, 2008 .