Week 1 NW Indiana HS Football Picks

Week 1 Picks: 2008 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

August 21, 2008

'Mr. Picker'
Week One (1) picks - 2008:

MERRILLVILLE (8-20-2008) The question of the prediction pre-season? How does the artificial turf, that has been installed at Morton, Valparaiso, Merrillville and Crown Point, affect making predictions on this year's games? While that's a little like asking how you like driving that car you're going to buy next year, I think a couple of things are obvious. At least they are to 'Mr Picker'.

First of all, the funny grass is going to work best for Morton and Merrillville. Why? Speed. The No. 1 asset of the 'Field Turf' artificial playing surfaces its that water, which can only slow up offense, drains quickly. Two inches of rain in Northwest Indiana on Thursday will have no effect on the field Friday night.

Merrillville, a team loaded with speed, especially defensively, may get beat by Father Time, but they won't lose to Mother Nature. Morton's spread attack with the QB running the football also should thrive on the fake grass, although a team like Hammond high might also appreciate a fast track.

Crown Point and Valparaiso aren't usually blessed with the same level of speed that Morton and Merrillville are, but CP will like the defensive speed they can generate no matter what the weather is. The Bulldogs' 3-5-3 defense was limited in bad weather because there's a lot of blitzing and rotating coverages. I have to believe the good footing will help them. Valpo hopes to have a top passing attack again and I don't know if a consistently good field is an advantage there because the gains receivers would make with good footing might be negated by the fact that defensive backs and pass rushers also won't get bogged down in the mud.

All in all, the turf takes away a variable, which is an unplayable field. CP, Portage (which had turf the last two years), Valpo, Morton and Merrillville will not play on unplayable fields no matter what the weather. The home field advantage may be more because some teams will be playing on a type of field that other teams cannot simulate. Also, teams like CP and Merrillville did not previously practice in the stadium because they didn't want to tear up the grass during practice. Now, the Pirates and CP (and I assume Morton, Portage and Valpo, too) will practice on the same field they play on. Mentally, that's an edge for the home team.

Okay then, you may ask. Am I ever going to break the 80% barrier that is the goal for a quality 'picker'? Probably not. If you do not pick noncompetitive games, you will not pick 80% of high school football games. I'm not going to pick blowouts so there's always going to be that margin of error. Isn't that what the Chicago Bears quarterback coach always says? Talk about slim pickings.

2007 (regular season) 71 of 97 = 73.2%
2007 (playoffs) 72 of 91 = 79.5%
2007 (overall) 143 of 188 = 76.0%

2006 (final) OVERALL : 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

WEEK (1) ONE: Clearly, there's no point in picking Hobart-Gary West Side. The 'Side' doesn't have a home field, but they have had helmets all month (unlike Roosevelt) so they should consider themselves lucky. I can't, in good conscience pick a game between Michigan City, a 5A school which has 20 starters back from last year and Roosevelt, which just got equipment a few days ago. I also can't pick River Forest until they show they can compete. The Ingots were 0-10 and were shut out six times last year. Plus Lake Station begins the season against North White, which has 20 starters returning. I'm not going to pick the final score there because I have an idea of what its going to be and so do you. Let's be honest.

But the first week is totally unpredictable and has almost no bearing on the rest of the season. Not everybody will be ready to play Friday, because frankly, the season begins too early and with too little pre-season. The bigger, stronger teams that rule in November, may wear out in the mid-August night. The 'basketball-on-grass' teams love this time of year, but everybody has doubts on opening night.

Nobody knows what's going to happen the first week of the year. We all just pretend we do.

South Newton at North Newton

MOROCCO (8-22-2008) This game shouldn't be the season opener, but here's a chance for North Newton, which was 1-9 last year, to turn some of that around. The home team has 18 starters returning including QB Ryan Georgeff (6-1, 195) and four senior offensive linemen. South Newton was 10-2 last year but they graduated all but five starters. They have a new QB, a new line and they seem small. South Newton won 57-13 last year and I'm sure the Spartans will not forget.

North Newton 28, South Newton 20

Lake Central at Munster

MUNSTER (8-22-2008) I like LC's big offensive line that averages about 240 pounds per man in front of running back Dillon Jamrosz. But early in the season, maybe you favor the passing game of 'Little Joe' Gill (6-4, 210), Munster's two-year vet at QB. LC probably has the more solid team but Munster is overdue for an upset.

Munster 20, Lake Central 14

Highland at Wheeler

UNION TOWNSHIP (8-22-2008) Highland held a lot of players out of the scrimmage and I now they see this one as potentially a sign of a comeback after a 1-10 year. Wheeler was 11-2 last season against a much softer schedule than Highland plays. Wheeler's Clay Duarte carried 151 times for 1,187 yards last year and a lot of his line is back. Wheeler kicker Mike Voss might be called on to make the difference. Then again, he might not.

Wheeler 30, Highland 21

Rensselaer at Kankakee Valley

DeMOTTE (8-22-2008) - The unofficial Jasper County championship (there's only 2 schools in Jasper County) sees Rensselaer primed for a big year with four returning offensive linemen led by all-staters Terry Davisson (6-7, 270) and Jacob Ahler (6-2, 235). But KV also returns three starting linemen in front of hard-running backs Adam Mandeville (5-9, 185) and Kale Popp (6-3, 205). The game is at KV but the Bombers are unusually talented up front.

Rensselaer 20, Kankakee Valley 14

LaPorte at New Prairie

NEW CARLISLE (8-22-2008) - The Cougars return 14 starters and LaPorte always has problems with them. But New Prairie lost most of their skill position offensive starters and they're going to need a lot of points in this game. LaPorte returns junior QB Dustin DeMuth and 1,000-yard runner Carlton Austin. This game will be typical of this series as the scoreboard and nobody will ask for their money back.

LaPorte 42, New Prairie 28

Valparaiso at Penn

OSCEOLA (8-22-2008) - This is an all-new Penn team from the one that was 12-1 in 2007, losing the regional title game 21-20 to Merrillville. The Kingsmen return most of the defensive line. Valparaiso has a lot of linemen back plus top kicker Tony Hite. Both teams have new QBs. This game has more question marks than the Chicago Bears' offense.

Penn 28, Valparaiso 21

Gavit at Bishop Noll

HAMMOND (8-22-2008) - This game typifies the first week. Both teams have short rosters on a hot night. Christian Ellison (6-4, 220) and Michael Tipton (6-0, 190) are among the many Gavit two-way players. Bishop Noll returns most of their offensive line in front of quarterback Eric Escamilla (5-11, 180). Noll was 0-3 last year and they want to avoid that. You never go wrong picking a high score on opening night.

Noll 35, Gavit 30

ANDREAN at Portage

PORTAGE (8-22-2008) - This game should attract great interest because it figures to be the starting debut of two highly-regarded sophomores Zack Huston of Portage and Demetri Blanco of Andrean. I'm not sure about Huston. He's just one of the choices to replace senior Jason Melcic while he's ineligible. Andrean is loaded with speed while Portage has some good offensive performers to surround whoever is QB. In 75-degree weather? On the artificial turf? There'll be more home runs than at a White Sox game. You can 'put it on the board'. Yes!!

Portage 31, ANDREAN 30

East Chicago at Hammond

HAMMOND (8-22-2008) - More hot fun in the summertime here as Hammond hopes there's some carryover from last year's 9-2 team, although a lot of the 2008 Wildcats will be starting for the first time. East Chicago senior QB Willie Lott (6-2, 195) has a lot of potential, but his offensive line is the type that might wear down in this level of heat. These are basketball schools so the bombs will be in the air here like this was Soviet Georgia.

East Chicago 44, Hammond 31

Griffith at Morton

HAMMOND (8-22-2008) - The debut of Morton's artificial turf, and of all the teams that get the fake grass, it will benefit Morton the most. Their real grass turf was not great and they always have a speed-based offense. I wish they'd have opened with an easier team. This game looks like the US Olympic basketball team against Lithuania. Griffith returns 17 starters, led by Mark Butkus (6-1, 197), Zach Butkus (6-1, 215) and speedy DB-KR Ryan Galiher (6-1, 171). These teams usually play twice a year and the second game is always a lot closer.

Griffith 42, Morton 16

LOWELL at CROWN POINT

CROWN POINT (8-22-2008) - The premier opening night game matches the three-time Duneland Conference champs (CP) against the five time Class 4A Sectional champs (Lowell). Lowell has returning QB Kurt Monix and 1600-yard rusher Brandon Grubbe (6-1, 175). CP has a largely new offense, led by state semifinalist wrestler Marcus Shrewsbury (6-2, 210), but the defense returns six players not counting top kicker Michael Lipton. A standing room only crowd of about 5,000 will watch as the fast new CP artificial turf helps the speedy Devils overcome a flurry of field goals.

LOWELL 27, CROWN POINT 16

MERRILLVILLE at Warren Central

INDIANAPOLIS (8-22-2008) - Probably the biggest game in the state on opening night. The dynasty team (4 consecutive state titles 2003-2006) undergoes a total makeover as Warren goes from an option running team to a spread passing squad, which is good news for all-American tight end Ed Hazlett (6-9, 265). The Pirates have great speed defensively on the artificial turf and kicker Ryan Stokes is good for a couple of field goals. But downstate folks get to see the DAC and regional champs led by D-1 QB prospect Dolapo Macarthy (6-6, 208). This game is unpredictable because Warren is making such a drastic change in offensive style. There's just no way Merrillville can be ready for them.