Week 11 Picks:  2008 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

October 30, 2008

 

 

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK 10, 2008 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 4; Right - 24 = 85.7%
The Pick	The Result
Class 1A Sectional 33
Triton 28, Whiting 21	Triton 35-14
South Central 33, LaVille 20	WRONG... LaVille 40-12
South Newton 35, West Central 7	South Newton 19-16
Lake Station 20, River Forest 16	Lake Station 12-6
Class 2A Sectional 25
Winamac 21, North Newton 7	Winamac 21-7
Rensselaer 28, Bishop Noll 16	Rensselaer 54-24
Seeger 56, Delphi 0	Seeger 35-7
North Judson 28, Wheeler 12	North Judson 31-28
Class 3A Sectional 17
Knox 42, Wirt 8	Knox 32-18
Clark 35,  Gavit 7	Clark 22-12
New Prairie 56, Gary Roosevelt 0	New Prairie 49-17
ANDREAN 35, Calumet 28	ANDREAN 46-6
Class 4A Sectional 9
Morton 56, Lew Wallace 0	Morton 30-0
Hammond 34, Highland 21	Hammond 8-6
Griffith 35, East Chicago 14	Griffith 42-0
Hobart 49, Gary West Side 6	Hobart 59-12
Class 4A Sectional 10
Logansport 42, Northridge 13	WRONG... Northridge 26-20
Kankakee Valley 20,  Clay 14	WRONG... Clay 28-7
LOWELL 38, Washington 21	LOWELL 24-7
Plymouth 28, Concord 20	Plymouth 25-24
Class 5A Sectional 2
LaPorte 38, Elkhart Memorial 28	LaPorte 49-42
Goshen 16, Adams 12	WRONG... Adams 42-30
Penn 35, Elkhart Central 6	Penn 38-0
Mishawaka 28, Riley 7	Mishawaka 35-14
Class 5A Sectional 1
Valparaiso 33, Portage 17	Valparaiso 42-19
Chesterton 28, Michigan City 27	Chesterton 28-19
Munster 27, LC 17	Munster 23-0
MERRILLVILLE 16, CP 12	MERRILLVILLE 42-6

WEEK-TEN (10) RECAP from Friday, October 24, 2008:  I'd like to tell you that I picked 85% of the games in seven sectionals because I'm so awesome, but let's get real.  If I picked EVERY game all year... mismatch or not... I'd pick about 85%.  It's not rocket science.  The first week of the Indiana state tournament should sell corporate sponsorship and naming rights to the GOP.

It's the 'Sarah Palin' quarterfinals.  For those who can't get the job done and some who don't even know what 'the job' is.  But there's no way I was going 28-0.  Northridge beating anyone is the biggest upset in the state.  The Raiders had lost eight in a row, but they outscored Logansport.  Northridge has never won a sectional in the entire history of the tournament, so pick against them again this week.  Kankakee Valley's 28-7 loss was disappointing, especially after they led 7-0 in the first quarter.  The best pick?  LaPorte's victory over Elkhart Memorial.  LaPorte was 2-7 coming in, but they'd played a tough schedule.  Many thought North Judson would beat undefeated Wheeler. I'm surprised it was as close as it was.  The Plymouth pick over Concord was just luck.  That game could easily have gone either way.
 

'Mr. Picker's Recent Picking Record

2008 (Week 10)  24 of 28   = 85.7%
2008 (Week 9)  9 of 11   = 81.8%
2008 (Week 8)  11 of 12   = 91.8%
2008 (Week 7)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 6)  9 of 11   = 81.9%
2008 (Week 5)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 4)  7 of 10   = 70.0%
2008 (Week 3)  7 of 12   = 58.3%
2008 (Week 2)  6 of 10   = 60.0%
2008 (Week 1)  9 of 12   =  75.0%
2008 Year to Date:  92 of 126 = 73.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

VALPARAISO (10-31-2008) - Let's stay with the seven sectionals we dealt with last week and add 3A Section 18, the 'companion' sectional to Northwest Indiana's Sectional 17.  Although I'd be hard pressed to explain how Knox and Clark are in the same sectional.  The second week of the post-season can be difficult because you have teams that react well to a win in some cases while other teams just wanted one more victory and they're very ready to die.  Nobody admits this, but players years later will tell you that sometimes by the 11th or 12th week on losing teams, they just want the season to end.  You'll see that factor in this week.  Some teams wanted that 10th week win a lot more than they actually wanted to practice and play an 11th week.  Weather factors in again this week as last week's mid-40s and driving rains morphs into mid 50s and dry fields this week.


CLASS 1A - SECTIONAL 33

Triton [6-4] at LaVille [5-5]

LAKEVILLE (10-31-2008) Lakeville's 40-12 blowout of South Central was surprising to me especially since SC gained 375 total yards and lost by four TDs.  I'm not buying into it.  Triton's Adam Creighbaum ran for four TDs last week and they won 34-0 at LaVille four weeks ago.  I would be shocked if LaVille can turn that around.

Triton 42, LaVille 28

South Newton [7-3] at Lake Station [1-9]

LAKE STATION (10-31-2008) This is one of those games where a team that simply does not belong in the post-season got the blessing of one win.  That's all they wanted.  It's time for basketball.  Lake Station will be gone.  South Newton moves on and both sides will be very happy about that situation.  There's no reason to even play this game.

South Newton 49, Lake Station 8



CLASS 2A - SECTIONAL 25

Winamac [6-4] at Rensselaer [5-5]

RENSSELAER (10-31-2008) This country boy matchup is interesting at first glance but Winamac plays a girly-man schedule.  I realize there's not a lot of schools around Pulaski County, but you've got to look hard to find seven 1A schools to play.  Meanwhile, Rensselaer has played 3A No. 2 West Lafayette (10-0) and 1A superpower Sheridan (9-1), the three-time defending state champ.  The Bombers will get better as the weather gets worse.

Rensselaer 27, Winamac 7


North Judson [7-3] at Seeger [7-3]

WEST LEBANON (10-31-2008) Judson has had a very good season and they beat Wheeler (9-1) last week, but this 90-mile trip over near the state line is cause for major worry.  Judson had 350 yards rushing on the Bearcats last week, rallying from a 14-0 deficit.  But I'm afraid this is not Wheeler they're playing.  Seeger, an undefeated state champion in 2004, averages 43 points a game and they have lost only to Rockville (10-0), North Montgomery (10-0) and West Lafayette (10-0).  In good weather, Judson can't outscore these boys.

Seeger 38, North Judson 28

CLASS 3A - SECTIONAL 18

Northwood [8-2] at Culver Academy [5-5]

CULVER (10-31-2008) Northwood rolled up 500 yards rushing last week, but they have to ride the big yellow bus to Culver this time in a rematch of a 14-6 Northwood victory in August.  That scenario leads to many post-season upsets, but with four-year starting QB Skyler Titus, who ran for 3 TDs last week, I think the tradition-rich Panthers win as expected. Culver gave up 200 yards rushing last week to a lesser team than Northwood.

Northwood 27, Culver Academy 14

(South Bend) St. Joseph's [8-2] at (Mishawaka) Marian [4-6]

MISHAWAKA (10-31-2008) The Michiana area's Catholic school Super Bowl gets an encore.  St. Joe beat Marian 28-6 in August and the Indians have lost only to Washington (7-3) and Penn (7-3).  Marian almost always makes this matchup a battle, but St. Joe is unusually well-balanced and this is the defending sectional, regional and semistate champion.  I don't think this game is close.

St. Joseph's 35, Marian 7


CLASS 3A - SECTIONAL 17

Clark [6-4] at Knox [6-4]

KNOX (10-31-2008) Knox is hard to predict because they've shuffled personnel.  Clark has a strong offense and they will get good weather to throw the ball.  But Knox's record is deceptive.  They have one loss in double-overtime and another to 2A superpower Jimtown (8-2).  And let's tell it like it is.  The drive from the north end of Hammond to Starke County after school on a Friday is ridiculous.  That's 10 points for Knox right there.

Knox 35, Clark 16


New Prairie [7-3] at ANDREAN [4-6]

MERRILLVILLE (10-31-2008) The Niners looked good last week, but New Prairie does not play in that weak Greater South Shore Conference.  New Prairie is traditionally strong, but they gave up 250 total yards to Gary Roosevelt last week and that opened some eyes at the 'Mr. Picker' update desk.  The Niners ran the ball well last week and they have speed.  The Cougars will run well on Andrean, but the 59ers will win a track meet.

Andrean 45, New Prairie 33


CLASS 4A - SECTIONAL 9

Morton [6-4] at Hammond [7-3]

HAMMOND (10-31-2008) The Wildcats will try to avenge a 63-8 defeat at Morton in September and I just don't see it.  Morton is a bigger, better version of the Wildcats and there's nothing Hammond can do about that this season.  This matchup isn't close and a lot of it is due to the schedule the two schools play.  The Governors will win this game by as much as they want to unless they get caught looking ahead to the sectional championship game.

Morton 42, Hammond 12


Hobart [9-1] at Griffith [6-4]

GRIFFITH (10-31-2008) Hobart didn't just beat Griffith in September, they shut them out 19-0.  At the start of the year, I thought the Panthers would win a playoff matchup with Hobart, but there is not one week in the past 10 which would indicate that is about to occur.  Griffith has more speed than they usually have and they'll get a dry track.  I think Hobart has very solid senior skill position players, but I'm waiting for the Griffith defense to totally dominate a game this year.  I may be buying into history here, but I can't see Hobart beating the Panthers twice.

Griffith 21, Hobart 17


CLASS 4A - SECTIONAL 10

Northridge [2-8] at (South Bend) Clay [5-5]

SOUTH BEND (10-31-2008) I'll say it again.  The biggest upset in the state last week was Northridge winning 26-20 over Logansport.  Northridge has never won a sectional and they had not won one playoff game in 10 years.  Here's an example of a team that simply wanted to win one post-season game.  Clay has played five 5A schools.  They are solid.  Logansport has a history of very limited playoff performances.  Northridge cannot go on the road and win this one and they don't need to.  They had their moment in the playoffs.

Clay 29, Northridge 7


Plymouth [10-0] at LOWELL [10-0]

LOWELL (10-31-2008) The only game in the state Friday night matching two 10-0 teams.  This game is NOT a contrast in styles.  Both teams run most of the time and bring lots of defenders to the line defensively.  Plymouth has faced a significantly tougher schedule.  The Rockies were lucky to beat Concord twice, but Lowell hasn't faced anyone as good as Concord.  Plymouth's running attack was shut down for the first time all year last week and you know Lowell has that tape.  But the Devils had five fumbles two weeks ago and nine penalties last week.  It is a huge advantage to play this one at home, but most of Lowell's recent playoff losses were at home.  I think Lowell has mentally pointed to this game (they didn't know whether it would be Concord or Plymouth) all year.  You can't go against the Devils at home on Halloween.

LOWELL 20, Plymouth 14


CLASS 5A - SECTIONAL 2

LaPorte [2-8] at (South Bend) Adams [3-6]

SOUTH BEND (10-31-2008) The strength of the DAC this year was not at the top, it was at the bottom.  LaPorte finished dead last in their league, but they have a dominating 1,500-yard rusher in tailback Carlton Austin, who gained a school and county record 319 yards and five touchdowns last week on 33 carries in a 49-42 win over Elkhart Memorial.  Adams scored 25 points a game but allows 29.  That's exactly the type of team that LaPorte wants to see.  On a good weather night, both teams will light up the scoreboard.  A first place and the last place team in the DAC will be in the sectional championship game.  No other league can say that this year.

LaPorte 42, (SB) Adams 28


Penn [7-3] at Mishawaka [7-3]

MISHAWAKA (10-31-2008) Penn has won six in a row including a 17-0 win over Mishawaka earlier this month.  The Cavemen beat Riley last week, but Riley hasn't had a winning season since Bill Clinton was in office.  How did Mishawaka lose to South Bend Washington two weeks ago?  Penn isn't explosive, but halfback Brandon Drudge does have 16 TDs.  Mishawaka doesn't throw the ball well (one pass last week).  They haven't beaten Penn in 28 years and it won't happen Friday.

Penn 28, Mishawaka 14


CLASS 5A - SECTIONAL 1

Chesterton [8-2] at Valparaiso [9-1]

VALPARAISO (10-31-2008) Chesterton folks reportedly don't like the fact that many observers blame Valpo's 12-10 loss to Chesterton in September on the fact that Valpo QB Zach Livovich was injured and did not play.  But they don't mind people saying that Chesterton was crippled against Merrillville because their starting QB Aaron Knight was injured and couldn't play.  It's time to stop whining and play.  Chesterton has had a fine year, but they have overachieved.  The option offense Trojans got a break against Valpo the first time, but they will be hard-pressed to stop Valpo's 34 ppg. attack.  Valpo is the top team in Northwest Indiana and Chesterton knows it.

Valparaiso 33, Chesterton 17


MERRILLVILLE [6-4] at Munster [8-2]

MUNSTER (10-31-2008) This is a tale of two leagues.  These two teams finished third in their leagues, but if we're being honest, there's no comparing the leagues.  Munster faces the Pirates for the first time in 26 years and this rare matchup should draw a sellout crowd to Munster.  Munster QB Joe Gill will see the fastest defense he's faced.  The Mustangs may be able to contain Dolapo Macarthy running the football, but I just don't see Munster scoring a lot of points here and the Pirates score consistently on special teams and defense.  Munster has played Lowell (10-0) but Lowell isn't Merrillville as the Mustangs will find out.  Munster will brag about a moral victory here because they will stay close.

MERRILLVILLE 26, Munster 14



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