Week 10 Picks:  2008 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

October 23, 2008

 

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK 9, 2008 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 2; Right - 11 = 81.8%
The Pick	The Result
Clark 27, Hammond 12	WRONG... Hammond 32, Clark 26
Griffith 42, East Chicago 16	Griffith 46, East Chicago 14
Munster 24, Kankakee Valley 21	Munster 40, Kankakee Valley 7
Wirt 34, Roosevelt 16	Wirt 22, Gary Roosevelt 8
Wheeler 63, Calumet 28	Wheeler 28,  Calumet 0
Benton Central 28, Rensselaer 27	Benton Central 35, Rensselaer 0
Valparaiso 35, LC 10	Valparaiso 34, LC 7
Portage 28, LaPorte 21	Portage 28, LaPorte 19
LOWELL 37, ANDREAN 20	LOWELL 56, ANDREAN 6
CROWN POINT 28, Michigan City 26	WRONG... Michigan City 7, CROWN POINT 3
MERRILLVILLE 27, Chesterton  14	MERRILLVILLE 28, Chesterton 14

 

WEEK-NINE (9) RECAP from Friday, October 17, 2008:  Once again, if I hadn't backed Crown Point I'd have been nearly perfect.  I've been wrong on Crown Point games six time in nine weeks.  Hammond and Clark was an overtime game which is, for purposes of predictions, a tie.  But there's some pretty good picks up there for week nine.  The wins by Valparaiso, Portage and Merrillville were almost correct to the last point.  That's why you pick scores (some do, some don't) and not just wins and losses or point spreads.  The best pick of the week?  There's so many.  But the Merrillville win over Chesterton, considering that Chesterton had a six game winning streak, was the best selection of the year not just the week.
 

'Mr. Picker's Recent Picking Record

2008 (Week 9)  9 of 11   = 81.8%
2008 (Week 8)  11 of 12   = 91.8%
2008 (Week 7)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 6)  9 of 11   = 81.9%
2008 (Week 5)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 4)  7 of 10   = 70.0%
2008 (Week 3)  7 of 12   = 58.3%
2008 (Week 2)  6 of 10   = 60.0%
2008 (Week 1)  9 of 12   =  75.0%
2008 Year to Date:  68 of 98 = 69.3%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

VALPARAISO (10-24-2008) - The handcuffs come off for 'Mr. Picker' this week.  All year long, we've avoided the obvious picks which could have racked up big numbers.  In the playoffs, as is the tradition here, we'll pick the seven entire sectionals that are connected to Northwest Indiana.  The post-season is actually easier to predict because all who can play will play and there's much more information on the teams during the week.  As always, week 10 is a waste of time for most teams because there's about 150 Indiana high school teams that do not belong in the post-season.  Those teams will quickly be horsewhipped and ash-canned and by week three.  Then we'll only have worthy teams left in the running.  But I will again come through and get my poll numbers up to 75% by the time the campaign ends in November.  I'm 'Mr. Picker' and I approve this message.


Class 1A Sectional 33

Whiting (6-3) at Triton (5-4)

BOURBON (10-24-2008) Traditionally, this trip is a slow road to doom for Whiting and it looks bad this time as well.  Danny Macon threw four TD passes last week in a 54-0 win over Lake Station, but this isn't Lake Station.  Whiting has been defeated by every quality opponent they've played and the next winning team they beat will be the first.  The Oilers' passing attack will be roped in if it rains.  Triton's played a tougher schedule than Whiting, but let's be honest, almost everyone has.

Triton 28, Whiting 21

LaVille (3-6) at South Central (3-6)

UNION MILLS (10-24-2008) South Central is a young team, but LaVille is really bad.  The Lancers broke a 6-game losing streak last week by beating Culver (1-8).  LaVille beat South Central 12-0 in August, but I honestly don't think there's much chance they can do it again.

South Central 33, LaVille 20

West Central (1-8) at South Newton (5-4)

KENTLAND (10-24-2008) West Central has lost eight in a row and they average 10 points a game.  South Newton has won 20 or more seven times in nine games.  The Rebels are a consistently strong team in the 1A playoffs and West Central simply can't stop anyone.  Here's one of those teams who simply cannot be in any real playoff.

South Newton 35, West Central 7


River Forest (1-8) at Lake Station (0-9)

LAKE STATION (10-24-2008) In the first game, Lake Station led 12-0 and River Forest rallied for a 14-12 triumph.  Lake Station has won five games in four years, but River Forest averages eight points a game.  This should be a very entertaining game and this is the 'Super Bowl' to both teams because neither is going to win the sectional.  I'm going to go with the home team and the team that should have won the first meeting.

Lake Station 20, River Forest 16


Class 2A Sectional 25

Winamac (5-4) at North Newton (4-5)

MOROCCO (10-24-2008) The Spartans have made positive strides this year and they will be at home.  But Winamac has only allowed 15 points a game and the Warriors have held five teams to 10 points or less.  This is the curse of the Greater South Shore Conference striking again.  When you play in the state's worst league, you aren't ready to play outside that league.

Winamac 21, North Newton 7


Rensselaer (4-5) at Bishop Noll (3-6)

HAMMOND (10-24-2008) Noll can score and the two hour drive north won't help the Bombers.  But there is no comparison in the schedules these two teams play.  The Bombers have played Tipton (6-3), Sheridan (8-1) and West Lafayette (9-0).  Even though they lost 350 last week, Rensselaer will win here.

Rensselaer 28, Bishop Noll 16


Seeger (6-3) at Delphi (0-9)

DELPHI (10-24-2008) Here's a mismatch.  No one can make a logical argument for an 0-9 team being in the post-season.  Delphi has scored 41 points all season and they allow 41 points a game.  When you're 0-9 you don't deserve a second chance.  Seeger gets the week off.

Seeger 56, Delphi 0


Wheeler (9-0) at North Judson (6-3)

NORTH JUDSON (10-24-2008) Judson rolled up 415 yards last week on Twin Lakes and they have won five in a row.  Triton's played a tougher schedule than Whiting, but let's be honest, almost everyone has.  Wheeler is the state's highest scoring team (51 points a game), but they play one of the state's softest schedules.  I don't see any way Wheeler is ready to drive 75 miles and play at one of the toughest sites in this part of the state.  North Judson is the best team Wheeler has played this year.  Wheeler is not the best team North Judson has seen.

North Judson 28, Wheeler 12


Class 3A Sectional 17

Knox (5-4) at Wirt (3-6)

GARY (10-24-2008) Knox has serious injury issues with starting QB Cody Binkly out last week in a 33-7 loss to New Prairie.  Wirt has even more serious issues.  This month brought the announcement that their school will close after this year.  The Troopers have won three of their last four, but Gary schools do not win post-season games against teams outside of Gary.  This will be Wirt's final game.

Knox 42, Wirt 8


Gavit (2-7) at Clark (5-4)

HAMMOND (10-24-2008) Clark's Micah Rooke was 19 of 35 for 290 yards last week and he's thrown 18 TDs this year.  Gavit's two wins are against Gary schools.  Clark beat Gavit by 27 points four weeks ago and Clark has improved since then.  Unless the weather is very bad, this game won't be close.  The Pioneers may feel they can win this sectional and Gavit will be glad to go home.

Clark 35, Gavit 7


New Prairie (6-3) at Gary Roosevelt (0-7)

GARY (10-24-2008) New Prairie got the perfect schedule.  They open with a Gary school on the road so they get future games at home.  Roosevelt has only scored 48 points all year and they only played seven of nine possible games.  Remember this is the team that didn't even have helmets until five days before this season began.  This is why losing teams should not be allowed in the post-season.  Some schools just don't take football seriously.

New Prairie 56, Gary Roosevelt 0

ANDREAN (3-6) at Calumet (7-2)

GARY (10-24-2008) Andrean's 3-6 record is the worst regular season mark for them in 20 years.  Soph QB Demetri Blanco (39-of-95, 464 yards, 5 TDs) has not played this month and I do not know that situation.  Back-up Richard Schmidt (33-of-74, 409) has also struggled.  Calumet has lost only to Clark (5-4) and Wheeler (9-0) and bad weather would favor them.  Kyle Kovach (140 carries, 1,028 yards, 11 TDs)  hasn't really been stopped.  I just can't see Calumet running all over Andrean.

ANDREAN 35, Calumet 28

Class 4A, Sectional 9

Lew Wallace (1-6) at Morton (5-4)

HAMMOND (10-24-2008) Again, when a team does not play the maximum of nine games, it tells you everything you need to know about their program.  Morton gets a home game and a week off.  You need that in the post-season if you're going to win a sectional championship.

Morton 56, Lew Wallace 0


Highland (0-9) at Hammond (6-3)

HAMMOND (10-24-2008) Highland has only scored 53 points all year, but I don't think they are hopeless in this game.  The Trojans' schedule is far tougher than what Hammond plays. The Wildcats are going to have to fall behind here before they stop looking ahead to the match with Morton and get serious.  This game will be closer than expected.

Hammond 34, Highland 21

Griffith (5-4) at East Chicago (4-4)

EAST CHICAGO (10-24-2008) Griffith beat EC 46-14 and rolled up 321 rushing yards.  This is one of those state tournament oddities where the season finale is the same game on the same site as the sectional quarter final.  Translated: East Chicago's going to get another whipping this week.

Griffith 35, East Chicago 14

Gary West Side (3-4) at Hobart (8-1)

HOBART (10-24-2008) Hobart wants to finish their final season in their old stadium at home and they will, with an easy win over West Side.  Hobart won the season opener 40-14 over West Side and the Cougars tend to wear down as the season goes on.  Again, if you plan to go a long way in the state tourney, you can't draw powerful opponents every week.

Hobart 49, Gary West Side 6

Class 4A Sectional 10

Logansport (5-4) at Northridge (1-8)

MIDDLEBURY (10-24-2008) Northridge just doesn't bring much to the table.  They've lost eight in a row and they've only won six games in four years.  Logansport is an experienced squad that has largely beaten only losing teams.  But as I said, Northridge is a losing team.

Logansport 42, Northridge 13


SB Clay (4-5) at Kankakee Valley (3-6)

DeMOTTE (10-24-2008) KV has won three of their last five and they have to be happy not driving to South Bend.  Clay has lost two games 9-6 and 7-6.  They rolled up 350 yards on Washington (7-2) in a 38-28 loss.  But KV, which began the season 0-5, is rallying into the playoffs for the second year in a row.  The Kougars run the ball well and I think they're quite happy with this playoff draw.

Kankakee Valley 20, Clay 14


LOWELL (9-0) at (SB) Washington (7-2)

SOUTH BEND (10-24-2008) Maybe the second best matchup on opening night in this part of the state.  Washington throws the ball 30 times every game and they want to wear you out.  Lowell averages 250 yards rushing per game and they want to wear you out in a different way.  Washington was 0-10 last year.  Lowell was 13-2 last season.  This one won't be over until it's over.

LOWELL 38, Washington 21

Concord (8-1) at Plymouth (9-0)

PLYMOUTH (10-24-2008) The best matchup on opening night in this part of the state.  Plymouth runs the 'full-house' backfield win no wide receivers on many plays.  Concord (41 points per game) uses a college spread offense with no running backs on some plays.  Polar opposites.  The first meeting was won by Plymouth 27-25 when Concord's 14-point fourth quarter rally fell short.  Both teams are pretty confident they'll win.  Concord may be the better team, but Plymouth has more control of the game and will eventually win.

Plymouth 28, Concord 20

Class 5A Sectional 2

Elkhart Memorial (6-3) at LaPorte (2-7)

LaPORTE (10-24-2008) Memorial gives up a lot of points and LaPorte isn't that bad.  The Sagarin computer rating has LaPorte winning this game.  The Slicers' Carlton Austin has rushed for 1,000 yards and 15 TDs.  LaPorte can't stop the run, but Memorial has beaten five teams with losing records and Warsaw (5-4). If you are looking for an opening night upset, here it is.

LaPorte 38, Elkhart Memorial 28

Goshen (4-5) at (SB) Adams (3-6)

SOUTH BEND (10-24-2008) This is a Saturday night game so Friday night winners can be in attendance at School Field in South Bend.  Adams has not held anyone to less than 17 points.  Goshen hasn't scored more than 28 points in any game.  So this is weak defense against weak offense.  This is a bad game.

Goshen 16, Adams 12


Elkhart Central (2-6) at Penn (6-3)

OSCEOLA (10-24-2008) Central has been beaten up by a tough schedule and they lost by 23 to Penn three weeks ago.  I don't see any way this game can be much different except that Penn will win by more.  I guess we need six week of playoffs so teams can beat teams they already beat.

Penn 35, Elkhart Central 6


Riley (2-7) at Mishawaka (6-3)

MISHAWAKA (10-24-2008) Riley had a stunning win over South Bend Washington three weeks ago, but that was the highlight of the season.  Riley has scored 122 points and 40 of those were against Gavit.  Mishawaka lost to Washington (7-2) and that may have been something they needed to get serious.  This game was 28-6 the first time.  That sounds about right.

Mishawaka 28, Riley 7

Class 5A Sectional 1

Portage (6-3) at Valparaiso (8-1)

VALPARAISO (10-24-2008) Valpo won 45-7 three weeks ago, but Portage won't get beat like that again.  The Indians have to decide what they want to risk from Valpo: 1,200-yard rusher Nate Thompson or talented passer Zach Livovich.  Portage got a must-win last week 28-19 over LaPorte, but I don't see how they can put enough points on the board to win here.

Valparaiso 33, Portage 17


Michigan City (4-5) at Chesterton (6-3)

CHESTERTON (10-24-2008) This game isn't as easy to call as it was three weeks ago.  The Trojans have understandably lost their offense since QB Aaron Knight was injured and sidelined. I don't know if he can play this week.  The Wolves are on a high with three wins in their last four games.  They do not have a smooth, slick offense but MC is on the rise.

Chesterton 28, Michigan City 27


Lake Central (3-6) at Munster (6-3)

MUNSTER (10-24-2008) Lake Central has been outscored 127-27 in their four-game losing streak and Munster hasn't allowed anyone to score more than 28 points this year.  Here's the problem:  LC's schedule is one of the 40 toughest in the state.  Munster has played a much softer schedule that includes Highland (0-9), Wirt (3-6), Andrean (3-6) and KV (3-6).  This is a neighborhood rivalry (LC won the first game 20-19) and bad weather would make this even closer.

Munster 27, LC 17


CROWN POINT (3-6) at MERRILLVILLE (5-4)

MERRILLVILLE (10-24-2008) Here's another border rivalry.  CP won the first time 10-7, but Merrillville QB Dolapo Macarthy did not play in that game.  The Bulldogs gained 300 yards last week and did not score a TD.  I cannot find the last time a Northwest Indiana high school team did that.  Merrillville always seems vulnerable to CP's unpredictable 3-5 defense and the Pirate offensive line will be tested.  I'm predicting a battle of field goals.

MERRILLVILLE 16, CP 12


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