Northwest Indiana Top-10

Week-8, 2008 High School 'Renegade' Poll

5-22-2008

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

ST. JOHN (5-21-2008) - With the end of the regular season came the playoff draw that brightened a lot of teams prospects. And it appeared that some of the teams needed a boost. Teams that got lucky 'care packages' from Indianapolis in the form of state tournament draws definitely include Hanover Central, Munster and Andrean.

Andrean, which split a late-scheduled double-header with Penn and swept the Bishop's Cup tourney in Mishawaka, drew a quarterfinal bye in the 3A Kankakee Valley Sectional. It is assumed they'll play Griffith in the KV Sectional championship game but the Panthers will have to win twice to reach that game while Andrean, the defending 3A state champ, will need just one win over Knox.

In the Class 4A Lake Central Sectional, Lake Central (24-6), Munster (25-6) and Lowell (20-9) are expected to battle it out. But this sectional has always been a little overrated. There are byes and there are games against non-competitive teams. Of you get the right draw, you can through here with one tough game. Munster knows what I'm saying. The Lady Ponies were the only team to receive a quarterfinal bye in the seven-team bracket. That means that Lake Central and Lowell will also meet in the sectional semifinals. Munster got lucky here.
If you remember last year, Munster played LC in the sectional semifinals and Lowell got the winner. It worked for the Devils as Lowell reached the 2007 4A state finals.

But nobody's happier than Hanover Central. In the five-team Class 2A Lake Station Sectional, not only did HC (19-7) get a bye, but they also drew Lake Station (4-16), which lost 18-2 to River Forest last week. HC grabbed an easy berth to the finals. It is much easier to reach the state finals in Class 2A or 3A than it is in 4A because of the smaller sectionals in the smaller classes. That's a flaw in the state tourney.

With that said, it is stunningly easy for 1A No. 1 Whiting (28-0) to reach the state finals. Not only do they play in a four-team sectional that includes three teams with losing records. The Caston Regional bracket groups four sectionals that have a grand total of 17 teams. Let's be blunt. Unless 1A No. 5 Lakewood Park Christian defeats Whiting in the regional championship game, the Oilers will be going to Indianapolis, but I don't like them against Lutheran.

The best regional to watch may be in Laville where four Top-15 teams, No. 6 Boone Grove, No. 12 Fairfield (21-1), either No. 3 Hanover Central or Bishop Noll should all be in the semifinals. Fairfield's Nicolle Mullett (17-0) is undefeated but the schedule is questionable. Hanover had a full week off in the final week of the season and they were not good when the break ended, losing to CP and Whiting.

What are defending 3A champ Andrean's chances of reaching the state finals? They defeated 3A No. 1 Mishawaka Marian (23-3) 4-3 Saturday (5-17-2008) to win the Bishop's Cup Tourney in Mishawaka. That means they're ready. You have to give them a fighting chance but Griffith has had a better year.

What about Whiting? It's iffy. Lakewood Park Christian (25-6) beat them last year and Indianapolis Lutheran (21-4) has allowed 19 runs all season against a schedule that included nine 4A teams. But Whiting will be the home team in every game, meaning they will bat last. That is a huge advantage in the state tournament.

For example, Hanover will be the road team until the regional final. That limits their chances. Whiting's poor schedule (compared to those two top 1A teams) will show up only if/when they fall behind because those teams have played competitive schedules and held their own. We just don't know about Whiting. They have not faced anyone like LPC or Lutheran.

Coverage of the state tournament may be a little limited. Since the IHSAA bumped the state tourney up in the effort to finish all sports before June 15, the softball sectionals have been jammed into the same week as track and tennis regional's. It's a mess. For example, if any team has a softball quarterfinal game on May 20, they better not have any girls who also run track. May 20 was also the day of the Chesterton track regional. May 20 is also the day of the regional tennis semifinals which wrap up on Wednesday. Tuesday is the annual 'ball of confusion' day for parents, athletic directors and media because three state tournaments preceded on the same day and there's no way to keep track of what's going on.

Plus, let's be honest. Sports media is almost exclusively male and most of them would rather slop hogs in their bare feet rather than cover girls sports. I'll again make the annual plea that the softball post-season be pushed back into the first three weeks of June. Not only would the weather be better, but tennis and track would have ended. There is no real reason for high school softball to start the post-season in mid May and I know it wasn't softball coaches who voted for that. The few teams that reach regional and state finals' competition would gladly do so after the final day of school. As long as spring sports end before the 4th of July weekend, why rush them? I would like someone in authority to make that proposal.

I am not optimistic that ANYONE from the seven county area (Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Newton, Jasper and Starke) will make the state finals. Whiting has the best chance, but Lakewood won't have to play them in Whiting, where the Oilers are almost unbeatable. Plus, all Whiting is hearing is how they are better than teams they refuse to play and how they are guaranteed the state championship.

In 2A, Boone and HC are struggling, but injured pitcher Taylor Johnson truthfully has until the regional to return to action. Somebody's got to beat Marian in 3A. Andrean did it once, but it'll be hard to do it twice. And, in 4A, Penn is always an issue and new 4A team Northridge is a powerhouse that must be respected. But there is a 7-10 day gap between the sectional and regional and 'time off' can change everyone's perspective.

Let's look at who may be starting on the mound for all the Top-10.

1. (4A) LAKE CENTRAL (23-6)
2007 (21-6), 2006 (25-8), 2005 (32-1), 2004 (29-3), 2003 (32-3-1)

ST. JOHN: The only way to rank Munster over Lake Central is if you forget about Munster's 15-3 loss to LC in late March. LC had a five-game wining streak heading into the final week. Jessica Dobson (11-1) struck out seven in a six-inning, 12-1 win over LaPorte. Rachel Weaver struck out nine in a 10-3 rout of Michigan City on Thursday (5-8-2008) as LC collected 11 hits. Again, LC has faced six 4A Top-10 teams, more than anyone else in NW Indiana. The Indians' (and Munster's) strength of schedule is off the charts. We're about to see if that matters. This team is the toughest one, on which to figure who the top starter would be. The choice probably will be Rachel Weaver (10-3), although Dobson is capable. Weaver has never faced Lowell and that certainly will be the matchup on May 22 in the sectional semifinals. You can come up with reasons why this does not matter, but LC has scored 10-run victories over Munster (24-6) and Lowell (19-9) this season. Obviously, all matchups will be different now, but I'd rather have won the previous meeting by 10 than have lost by 10. Here is the best team that has played the toughest schedule. Someone will have to upset them to keep LC from reaching the state finals.

2. (4A) Munster (25-6)
2007 (24-7), 2006 (22-7), 2005 (25-3-1), 2004 (25-3-1), 2003 (22-7), 2002 (15-12)

MUNSTER: Munster's non-conference schedule is the equal of anyone and their tournament schedule ended with back-to-back wins over Jefferson and Harrison in the Munster Invite Saturday (5-10-2008). Senior Eleanor Kennedy (18-1) is having a 'dream' season and it continued with a four-hit shutout against Harrison Saturday. There has to be excitement here as the Mustangs got a VERY favorable playoff draw. The way they are playing with 12 consecutive wins at the start of the week, they have to feel they can win big in the post-season. The Mustangs' 15-3 loss to LC is so long ago, they can rationalize it away. The season-ending 2-1 loss to Chesterton is understandable. Obviously Eleanor Kennedy will be the post-season starter, and if she starts well, it should inspire great confidence here. There is a great story here. I do not know of a big school team that has lost a game by 12 runs (when both sides used top pitchers) and gone on to reach the state finals. I don't think it has happened. But it wouldn't hurt Munster for Lowell to upset LC. If I'm reading the bracket correctly, Munster will also be the home team at the regional if they can get there. The Lady Ponies have played a 'state finals' schedule.

3. (4A) LOWELL (20-9)
2007 (30-7), 2006 (23-7), 2005 (21-10), 2004 (20-9)

LOWELL: Lowell shut down Chesterton 4-1 on May 9 in an errorless game for the Devils' best win in weeks. The Devils closed the year with seven wins in their last 10 games. Forget the 15-5 loss to Lake Central. Lowell used a JV pitcher in that game. Lowell ended the year with a 5-2 win over Crown Point as Megan Bolanowski hit a three-run homer in the ninth-inning. Bolanowski (9 HRs, 39 RBIs) is easily the biggest surprise of this season. Usually good hitters are good from day one. I do not know of a player who has come off the JV (the first half of 2007) to hit so well. Lowell poses defensive problems with three left-handed hitters at the top of the batting order, so they don't have to win 1-0 or 2-1. Lowell's pitching situation seemed unsettled, but seniors Allyssa Reed and Kaitlyn Bolanowski combined for three shutout innings on the road at Chesterton so the hard times may be over. Reed closed the CP game with five scoreless innings. Lowell drew Gary West Side to start the post-season, but they also drew a path that goes through Munster and LC. They did not have to do that in 2007 when they won the sectional. I would guess that Lowell will settle on Jacki Fletcher (7-1) or Kaitlyn Bolanowski to start the post-season with Allyssa Reed closing, but they could use three pitchers in every game. Lowell looked very good in the final week, the only time you really need to play well.

4. (4A) Chesterton (17-9)
2007 (20-6), 2006 (30-2), 2005 (27-3-1), 2004 (20-7), 2003 (22-5)

CHESTERTON: The Trojans' lost an extra-inning game at Crown Point and Chesterton also lost 4-1 at home to Lowell in the final weeks. Top starter Catie Armstrong did not start either game, but Armstrong did take the loss against the Bulldogs in nine-innings, although the junior right-hander did pitch six shutout innings. The Trojans won't enter the playoffs with a long wining streak, but I don't think there are major problems here. Chesterton has a couple of freshmen playing key roles, but they host the playoffs and their first two foes will be Michigan City and Crown Point. The Trojans beat Munster 2-1 to end the year, but final week games are notoriously deceptive. Portage split with Lake Central (25-6) and they realize there won't be anyone that good in sectional play. You look for senior No. 1 pitchers at this point and that's Leggett. I still think the Trojans are the best team in the eight-team Chesterton Sectional and they got a very good draw. Obviously, you're going to see Catie Armstrong pitching in every game once the post-season begins.

5. (4A) Portage (19-9)
2007 (23-7), 2006 (18-12), 2005 (20-9), 2004 (27-4-3), 2003 (19-9)

PORTAGE: Portage lost 3-2 in nine-innings to Griffith on May 9, but they then shut out LaPorte 2-0 to improve to 10-4 in the DAC. Earlier last week, they lost 7-3 at Penn (20-5), but the Indians seem to be playoff-ready. Senior Olivia Leggett (17-7) is going to lead them. She had pitched four consecutive complete games at the start of the week and she added an 11-1 win over shorthanded Boone Grove on May 14. Portage opened the playoff with a 7-1 win over rival Hobart (11-17). Here's another team that believed in a tough schedule and we're about to find out if it pays off for them. The Indians do have some issues offensively, but weaker offensive teams have reached the state finals. Portage got a good draw (favored Chesterton is in the other half of the bracket) at the 4A Chesterton Sectional as well. There's a lot of teams in the way, but a Portage-Chesterton final game would not be a surprise and Portage winning, considering the schedule they've played, would also not be a shock.

6. (2A) HANOVER CENTRAL (19-7)
2007 (20-10), 2006 (16-14), 2005 (26-5-3), 2004 (25-7)

CEDAR LAKE: Hanover shut out Hebron 4-0 and South Central 10-0 before beating 2A No. 7 Boone Grove 5-3 to win the school's 8th Porter County Conference tournament title in 12 years. Jessica Toth pitched the shutout against Hebron (16-6) while Kelsey Jankowski (10-4) pitched the shutout against South Central while cracking three base hits. Shannon Kiraly hit a three-run homer against Hebron. The losses have been to Whiting (26-0), CP (16-10), Munster (25-6), Beecher, Illinois (25-5); Boone Grove (16-4), Andrean (16-9) and Eastern (23-4) and there's still no bad losses there. HC lost two road games the final weekend and got a combined four hits. They looked sleepy and that is a major cause for concern. The only drawback for Hanover is that, while Lake Central is senior dominated, Hanover Central has a lot of experienced younger players in key positions and they may not grasp the sense of urgency here. Next year is promised to no one. Hanover drew a bye and Lake Station for their first game, so they will easily reach the sectional finals against Noll or Wheeler. The sectional title is within their grasp, and playing on the road the final two days of the season should help, even if they got spanked when they did it. I think Hanover's best lineup has Jessica Toth (9-4) pitching and Kelsey Jankowski at first base, but Toth is not 100%. HC is the only NW Indiana team that is undefeated this year on a non-Northwest Indiana regional site, but HC has not seen Bishop Noll this season and they have never met Fairfield. Plus, the draw takes them on the road team against Noll and Boone or Hebron at the regional. The odds are against Hanover. It will be a disappointment if HC does not play Indianapolis Scecina at the state finals. The bar is set very high here.

7. (3A) Griffith (20-6)
2007 (16-14), 2006 (12-19), 2005 (19-15), 2004 (16-15), 2003 (18-14)

GRIFFITH: Griffith defeated Portage 3-2 in nine-innings as Brittany Bridges struck out 11 and the Panthers shut out KV 6-0 as Bridges fanned 12. Bridges (13-5) pitches every game now and that's the way they'll enter the post-season. The Panthers need to warm up the big, yellow bus for three trips to God's Country to play at the Kankakee Valley Sectional in DeMotte. The Panthers have lost to Andrean (16-9), Blackford (18-4), Munster (25-6) twice, Highland and Niles, Michigan (22-0) who is undefeated. Griffith was 4-3 at one point this season, so they are now 15-3 in their last 18 games. The Panthers are playing very well, but the final portion of their schedule (5-0 shutouts of Wheeler and Gavit) isn't strong and that may hurt them going into the post-season next week. The Panthers could upset Andrean in the sectional title game, but they probably would not consider it an upset. I can't see them beating Marian, but I couldn't see them winning 20 games this year either and they will.

8. (3A) ANDREAN (14-8)
2007 (29-3), 2006 (26-4), 2005 (32-3), 2004 (29-5), 2003 (27-2)

MERRILLVILLE: A good week followed by a not-so-good one for Andrean saw them sign up for two non-scheduled games against Penn. The Kingsmen won 4-1 before Andrean won the nightcap 9-8 on May 10. Alyssa Mosely (8-4) pitched all of both games and fared a lot better in the loss than she did in the win. Mosely pitched a 4-3 win over 3A No. 1 Marian (21-3). It doesn't matter. The Niners lost 1-0 to Crown Point and 7-6 to Wheeler in the final week in front of the Bishop's Cup tournament on May 17 when they will see 3A No. 1 Mishawaka Marian. Again, Mosely pitched both games. The Niners got a bye in the KV sectional and they'll be favored to beat Knox. Then, a third matchup with rival Griffith for the sectional title. The Panthers have defeated Andrean 3-2, but the Niners have also beaten Griffith 8-2. It obviously looks like Mosely will start the post-season, but Nicole Derezinski appeared very capable as late as the Bishop's Cup tourney. Andrean has not been able to play the number of games they usually play and it has hurt them. But they beat 3A No.1 Mishawaka Marian and that win should boost them. I still don't think Griffith will beat Andrean, and when I look at them, I see a team that's very similar to the one that swept the 3A playoffs last year.

9. (4A) CROWN POINT (16-10)
2007 (16-14), 2006 (13-14), 2005 (12-14), 2004 (8-19), 2003 (16-16)

CROWN POINT: The roller-coaster keeps rolling as CP won their fifth consecutive game, 5-4 over Chesterton in nine-innings. A 5-1 win over Boone and a 1-0 win over Andrean made it seven in a row before CP lost 5-2 at Lowell (5-15-2008). But CP ended the regular season with 9 wins in their last 10 games. That Trojan win was a big 'hope' game because now when CP meets Chesterton in the semifinals of the Chesterton Sectional next week, CP has hope that they can beat the Trojans. CP did lose pitcher Taylor Perry, probably for the season with an arm injury, but sophomore Jackie Beilfuss (11-7) would probably have been the choice for the solo playoff starter anyway. She is that type of player. CP is a rare team in this area in that their rise or fall in the post-season will depend on the offense, which has been inconsistent. The Bulldogs have been consistent the last 14 days and they have been scoring runs. They look good and spirits are high in the drive for their first sectional title in four years. But I have to admit my pre-season hope was 20 wins and second place in the DAC and Crown Point didn't get there. To beat Chesterton and Portage on successive days is a tall order, but that's what they need for the season to be a success.

10. (2A) Boone Grove (18-5)
2007 (16-11), 2006 (14-16), 2005 (9-19)

PORTER TOWNSHIP: Boone Grove lost the PCC Championship game 5-3 to Hanover Central (18-5), but they have played well enough to justify a jump ahead of LaPorte and they have played enough competition to jump ahead of Whiting. The losses are to Bishop Noll, 3A No. 1 Mishawaka Marian and 2A No. 3 Hanover. The Wolves have Crown Point left to play as well as Portage and Calumet. This team is more real than Whiting or Wheeler. Taylor Johnson (13-3) suffered a shoulder injury in the PCC title game and shut it down for the season but she did pitch five innings in an 11-0 romp over wildly-overrated Winamac in the sectional semifinals. The position players' roster has holes, but first baseman Caitlin Wilcox has seven home runs and junior center fielder Katie Runyon may be the fastest player in NW Indiana from first to third. If Johnson cannot pitch every game, the Wolves cannot get to the finals. But if Johnson (13-3) is OK, the Wolves have to like a playoff path that includes Hebron and Hanover, two teams they are VERY familiar with. Far less experienced teams than Boone have reached the state finals in 2A, but Hanover is saying the same thing.

On the outside looking in...

(1A) Whiting (28-0)
2007 (26-4), 2006 (33-0), 2005 (11-16), 2004 (28-6), 2003 (21-10)

WHITING: Whiting junior Mel Dumezich (24-0) shut out Hanover Central 3-0 to boost them to an undefeated season, a win that was somewhat devalued by HC's end-of-the-season struggles. Whiting nipped Bishop Noll 2-1 in a game where Dumezich had 21 strikeouts in seven innings, a game that had higher value with Noll's late season surge. The only run against her was unearned. Amanda Blackwell's two-run single erased a 1-0 Noll lead in the sixth. Blackwell was 3-for-3 in a 6-1 win over Morton (10-11), the only 4A school on Whiting's schedule. The Oilers' won the first Greater South Shore Conference (GSSC) title with a perfect record. I feel confident in saying that Mel Dumezich, who is 83-3 in three seasons, will be the Whiting pitcher in every single post-season game. I don't know what makes me so sure. Just a hunch...

But you can't take the Oilers seriously as a Top 10- team locally until they take themselves seriously schedule-wise. Whiting played no one in the Northwest Crossroads or Duneland Athletic Conference. They have basically told everyone that strength of schedule does not apply to them the way it does to all other teams in all other sports. Whiting has the softest paths of all time to the state finals. The latest IHSSA reorganization has only left 17 1A teams in their regional and only one, Lakewood Park Christian (25-6), can beat Whiting. The Oilers are one of the favorites in the 1A playoffs and more power to them. Most local media has already given them the state title as they did in 2007. The defense is shaky (4 errors in the season finale against Kouts when Dumezich didn't pitch) and they have only trailed once all year. But it's Class 1A and the Whiting Sectional was filled with JV-caliber teams. Whiting can't lose at the sectional unless all their girls suddenly take up tennis.

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