2008 Indiana State Softball Championship Previews

6-05-2008

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

INDIANAPOLIS (6-7-2008) I have no inside information, but I think change is on the way. I can't tell what high schools all over the state feel, but I don't think there will be four classes of softball playoffs much longer. There is a proposal that eventually will get to the Indiana High School Athletic Association (IHSAA) that calls for the reduction in playoff classes from four to three. I'd be very surprised if it doesn't pass, and by 2010 at the earliest, softball will have just three parallel brackets of elimination games.

The reasons: Travel costs. A watered down Class 1A (only 17 teams in the entire regional softball bracket and four-teams sectionals in the north) and cut throat Class 4A (8 team sectionals) makes the multiple playoff classes a poor idea. I'm not naive enough to think that basketball is not the motivation for change, but softball and baseball will be dragged back to three classes.

That means the 'window of opportunity' for 1A and 2A teams will soon close. Three classes means six or seven wins are required to reach the state finals in 1A and 2A instead of four or five. It's a big change. And change is gonna come.

But for now, they'll give away four of the big trophies and four of the little ones Saturday at Ben Davis high school in Indianapolis.

Here's who's going to win them.

Class 1A
No. 5 Frontier (26-5) vs. No. 1 Whiting (32-0) 6:30 p.m.
No. 2 Lutheran (25-4) vs. No. 3 Tecumseh (24-4) 8:30 p.m.

6-6-2008 (INDIANAPOLIS) The 1A bracket is as interesting as any in the 2008 state finals as it is the only class that features four of the top five teams in the final state poll. Morgan Lewis was 17-6 last year and she pitched a nine-inning, three-hit shutout in the state championship game.

Lutheran is not guaranteed to get to the final game by any means as they must win a rematch with Tecumseh, a team that lost 1-0 to Lutheran in the 2007 state 1A title game.

Despite what Whiting backers believe, nobody's going to have a pitching edge in the state finals. Tecumseh's 5-foot-5 Audra Sanders (20-4. 0.58 ERA) has 318 strikeouts (she struck out 406 batters last season) and has allowed 49 hits in 157 innings. Lewis (21-4, 0.37 ERA) has 271 strikeouts this year against a tougher schedule than Tecumseh or Whiting plays.

Frontier has a wonderful record, but they may be in over their heads here. They have not faced a team that has anyone like Dumezich (29-0, 0.20 ERA, 456 strikeouts) and if they don't get the lead quickly, the Falcons, who bat just .256 as a team, almost certainly will bite the Indianapolis dust here.

Class 1A teams usually reach the state finals with a dominant pitcher who blows away teams that have holes in their lineups, as most 1A schools do. Whiting and Tecumseh appear to fall into that category. But Dumezich has allowed only two unearned runs all year, while Lutheran's Lewis, for example, has given up 16.

Lutheran is different. They won the state finals with five freshmen starting last year and all of them are back. The Saints bat .401 as a team and Lewis, a 5-foot-9 right-hander, has pitched four consecutive shutouts (she has 19 on the year) in the playoffs and has allowed eight earned runs all year. 5-foot-9 sophomore Amanda Korb batted .435 last season with 16 extra base hits. Lewis is a .525 hitter with six homers and the Saints have done this against a schedule that includes eleven 4A schools. Lutheran has four starters with 80 or more at bats who are hitting .400 or more.

Lutheran's only losses are to 3A New Palestine (27-3) and Roncalli and 4A powers Avon (25-6) and Franklin Central (27-4).

Whiting's key last week was throwing out Lakewood Park star Holly Weaver on an attempted delayed steal of home in the first inning. The idea of Dumezich on the mound striking everybody out makes the opposition gamble on low percentage plays. The Oilers scored in the first inning and they are great front runners. Whiting has not trailed by two runs in any game all year, but they have only three hitters who are batting above .300 and while one is Dumezich (62-99, .626, 15 HRs, 62 RBIs) the hurlers at this level are going to pick and choose who they pitch to.

This is a very good final-4. I secretly think Frontier might know the jig is up, but the other three squads have embarrassed the opposition most of the year and they all think they're going to be state champions on Sunday morning.

Whiting has an edge because the rematch of last year's state title game between Lutheran and Tecumseh may go far into the night. But the winner of that game is the home team in the title matchup, and if it's Lutheran, Whiting hasn't seen a pitcher like Lewis all season. Whereas, Lutheran, which has faced 400-strikeout pitcher Jenny Ezparza of Avon, has seen pitchers like Dumezich.

Lutheran and Whiting have been 1-2 all year and Lutheran has a better team.

Class 2A
Bremen (22-8) vs. South Spencer (24-3) 6:30 p.m.
Lewis Cass (19-11) vs. Southwestern (18-6) 8:30 p.m.

6-6-2008 (INDIANAPOLIS) Don't look for any Top-10 teams here. They've all been eliminated, a large percentage by Bremen which has beaten No. 3 Jimtown (23-5), No. 7 Boone Grove (22-6) and No. 10 Fairfield (23-2). Southwestern stopped No. 1 defending state champ Scecina 3-2 in 12 innings in the regional finals. Bremen's Jenni Andrews (22-8, 1.58 ERA) is not a big strikeout pitcher, but South Spencer bats .261 as a team. That won't get it done. Bremen is not an offensive force but they have defeated three Top-10 teams and that's more than luck.

Cass bats .283 and was 5-9 at one point this season. Southwestern was 0-4 and 2-5 before they got going, but they got it going with 5-foot-10 Devin Brierly (18-3, 0.74 ERA), who hit .534 (39-of-73) on the year. Southwestern lost their first three games by the same score: 7-0. I've got to believe that some regular players were missing and since this is the squad that took out No. 1 Scecina, and they will be the home team in the semifinals and finals, I've got to figure Southwestern will be the state champ.

Class 3A
Bellmont (26-7) vs. New Palestine (27-3) 6:30 p.m.
Jasper (27-4) vs. No. 1 Mishawaka Marian (29-4) 8:30 p.m.

6-6-2008 (INDIANAPOLIS) No class has more uncertainty than 3A because the matchups pair teams that are from different regionals. Bellmont, from the Ohio state line, has scored 256 runs against largely a 4A schedule. They do not have a strikeout pitcher and that will hurt them against New Palestine and their superpower trio of shortstop Jessica Huey (48-108, 444, 6 HRs, 30 RBIs), Lauren Schroeder (29-69, .420, 4 HRs, 20 RBIs) and Alyssa Marcum (44-94, .468, 8 HRs, 56 RBIs).

Jasper rises or falls with right-hander Leah Miller (25-4, 0.68, 326 strikeouts) but Marian counters with durable Samantha DeFord (27-3, 1.38 ERA, 227 strikeouts) who is backed by twins Ashleigh Bouquet (.444) and Alex Bouquet (.411) who bat 1-2 in the lineup.

Marian's best statistic: They have 22 triples and 64 doubles in 33 games. The Knights have a lot of speed. The 3A game is the one where fatigue might set in because the starting time is suggested to be at 4:30 in the afternoon, which is peak heat time on a day where temperatures are predicted to reach 90 degrees. That works against the hard-throwing pitchers who need to strike everybody out. Marian has played a state finals schedule and they have carried the No. 1 banner a lot of the year. They will be the home team all weekend and they have the ability to create runs. This will be a high-scoring bracket, but Marian has to be a slight favorite over New Palestine in 3A.

Class 4A
Franklin Central (27-4) vs. East Central (30-3)
LaPorte (20-13) vs. McCutcheon (29-3)

6-6-2008 (INDIANAPOLIS) In all the time I've watched girls softball, I have never seen a series of playoff upsets like the ones LaPorte has pulled off. They trailed Crown Point 2-0 with six outs left and won 4-2. They trailed Munster 5-3 in extra innings and won 6-5. Finally, they trailed Northridge 4-0 in the final inning and the 7-8-9 hitters coming up. Still the Slicers scored five times and won 5-4.

In the 23 years of the state tourney, I don't remember anybody doing anything like this. It's hard to analyze LaPorte, because falling behind by two or more runs and rallying to win in the late innings is a response, not a strategy. Junior right-hander Amanda Jones (13-9, 1.83 ERA) keeps them in games, but she's not a strikeout pitcher and her defense must play well.
Teams need to pitch around senior shortstop Tara Buchanan (27-60, .450), who bats second and anchors the lineup. Sophomore Jessica Craft has four homers, but the Slicers began the season 6-1 and then went 6-12 before winning their last eight.

I would never say that LaPorte couldn't beat McCutcheon, but the Mavericks are led by left-handed pitcher Tori Collins (21-3, 0.66 ERA), who is in the state finals for the third time. Collins, who reached the finals with 1A Clinton Prairie in 2005 and with McCutcheon last year, has 227 strikeouts in 156 innings. The Mavericks bat only .290 as a team, but they have played an elite schedule. LaPorte's Jones must adjust to four left-handed hitters in the McCutcheon lineup and a team that is a two-time state finalist. The Mavericks return the majority of last year's lineup, which also reached the state finals. McCutcheon, which is 58-12 in the last two seasons, is a better team than LaPorte, but so were the last four teams the Slicers defeated.

East Central is the only team in the finals that truly uses two pitchers. Kristin Perdiew (13-2. 0.74 ERA) and Amber Eckstein (17-1, 0.56 ERA) have split time this year. Traditionally, coaches settle on one pitcher in the post-season. EC is near the Ohio state line and it's hard to determine how strong softball is at the bottom of the state.

Franklin Central is the favorite here, led by senior Chandra Bell (18-2, 0.10), who is the most dominant pitcher in the finals. The 5-foot-9 right-hander has allowed just two earned runs all season against a schedule that includes Lake Central (25-7), Center Grove (24-4), Indianapolis Lutheran (25-4), Noblesville (20-8, Carmel (23-5), Perry Meridian, Avon (23-6) New Palestine (27-3) and Pendleton Heights (26-6).

Franklin Central has lost 2-0 to McCutcheon and they bat just .263 as a team. But I'm going to pass that off as a product of the schedule they play. FC should break the 16-game winning streak of East Central and I would pick them to defeat McCutcheon for the state title.

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