Northwest Indiana Regional Preview

5-28-2008

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

Caston (1A) Regional
Class 1A - 11 a.m. (EDT)
Morgan Township (9-13) vs. No. 5 Lakewood Park Christian (25-6)
Triton (16-12) vs. No. 1 Whiting (30-0)

CASTON (5-31-2008) First of all, let's separate what could happen from what will happen. In Morgan's 6-5 win over LaCrosse (9-18), the Cherokees were out hit 11-4. They have virtually no chance against Lakewood Park Christian (LPC). Triton has little more of a chance against Whiting. Junior Oiler star pitcher Mel Dumezich (27-0, 0.21 ERA, 429 strikeouts) struck out 20 in the Oilers' 10-0 win over Washington Township (7-14). There COULD be a regional championship game between Morgan and Triton but there won't be. Okay? Let's not waste time on that. So we have private school powerhouse Lakewood Park against Whiting, a rematch of last year's semifinal, won 1-0 by LPC when Whiting was no-hit.

The Oilers have to play a complete game here, because LPC is known for destroying defenses with bunts and slaps. Leadoff batter Holly Weaver (54-92, .587, 41 runs scored) reaches base an amazing 70% of the time on hits, walks and errors. No. 2 hitter Jami Detharege (26 RBIs, 36 runs scored), another lefty, is another who simply wants to put the ball in play, something opponents against Whiting have had problems doing all season.

Here's the question, and the answer will be obvious in the first inning. If LPC's top two hitters can put the ball in play, they're going to win because the ball hasn't been in play against Whiting much all year. Dumezich averages about 15 strikeouts a game and there's only 21 outs.

This is the Oilers' greatest test because this is a team built to handle strikeout pitchers. LPC, which is located in Fort Wayne, scored 260 runs during the 29-game regular season. They can break down, as they did in a 10-1 and 12-4 double-header loss to 4A powerhouse Homestead (26-2-2) on May 3. Lakewood also lost 11-1 to 4A DeKalb (21-8) in mid-April and 5-1 to 4A superpower Snider (23-4). But LPC's Logan Carnahan (17-4, 117 strikeouts) will probably NOT pitch around Dumezich (58-93, .624, 64 runs scored), who has a state-leading 15 homeruns, unless there's runners on base and first base open. Remember, Carnahan no-hit Whiting last season and Lakewood Park has played nine 4A teams. Freshman Amanda Blackwell, who has five homers and 41 RBIs, needs to have a contributing day and junior catcher Adi Cruz may have to throw out a base runner or two because LPC will try to steal bases.

Dumezich (27-0) has 25 shutouts, but you have to question the schedule the Oilers have played, which has to be boring, even for its players. They intentionally dumbed down the schedule and they do not play any of the teams in the Northwest Crossroads Conference or the big school Duneland Athletic Conference. The toughest team Whiting has played all season was 2A No. 4 Hanover Central (20-7), the Porter County Conference champion, a team the Oilers beat 3-0. No one would say that Hanover is at the level of DeKalb, Fort Wayne Snider and Homestead, all 4A schools.

While Dumezich leads the state in victories, strikeouts and shutouts (24), the Oilers have faced mostly teams like Hanover that stand and swing the bat. Lakewood starts the game with two hitters who just put the ball in play and run. No one knows if Whiting has a defense beyond Cruz because Dumezich strikes out 15 batters a game. The other drawback for Whiting is that they have already been guaranteed the state championship in the local media. That talk puts the Oilers, a team that has trailed only once all season, at a huge disadvantage.

LPC won 9-2, 11-0 and 10-0 in three non-competitive sectional games. Whiting won 11-0 and 10-0. Neither side has been tested yet and you know very little about a team until they fall behind in a game they must win.

The Oilers get one big break. They will be the home team in BOTH games Saturday at Caston. I don't have any statistics on this, but it's obvious from watching for many years that, after the sectional level, the home team wins most of the time in girls softball. And no one would question that the team with the most dominant pitcher wins most of the time. That's Dumezich, who is 85-3 in three years and has struck out over 1,200 batters in three seasons. If she loses, it will be on unearned runs.

If Whiting leads all the way or can stay tied going to the late innings, they will beat LPC, which does not have dominant pitching. But this game may be over in the top of the first inning. If the Oilers fall behind, it is a situation Whiting has not faced against good competition. Again, you don't really know anything about your team until they fall behind in a game they must win. I think Lakewood is too difficult to contain and LPC is going to the state finals.

LaVille (2A) Regional
Class 2A - 11 a.m. (EDT)
Garrett (19-8) vs. Bremen (20-8)
No. 7 BOONE GROVE (21-5) vs. No. 4 HANOVER CENTRAL (20-7)

LAKEVILLE (5-31-2008) The stakes seem to have risen here for Boone Grove and Hanover Central. At one time, there were three ranked teams in the other half of the LaVille Regional bracket, but Fairfield (23-2) and No. 3 Jimtown (23-3) both lost early in sectional play to Bremen. Garrett is the wild card. Unranked and from the northeast corner of the state, their strength is hard to judge. Boone Grove has battled Hanover Central on even terms twice and Hanover has played the toughest schedule, losing to Andrean (18-8), Crown Point (18-12), Whiting (30-0), Beecher, Illinois (30-4); and Munster (28-5) while defeating Chesterton (17-10), Lowell (20-10), Hebron (17-6) twice, Wheeler (20-7) and Bishop Noll (19-11).

I don't discount Garrett due to the schedule (they have defeated 1A No. 5 Lakewood Park and 4A No. 5 Snider). But Bremen, the school that eliminated Hanover Central in the regional title game in 2005, is scary. Junior Jenni Andrews pitched a no-hitter against 2A No. 2 Jimtown and a two-hitter against 2A No. 10 Fairfield (23-2).

Playing on the Newton Park Field that will also host the regional, Bremen scored five times in the first inning against undefeated right-hander Nicole Mullett (20-1) and the young Fairfield squad (only 2 seniors) never recovered. Bremen had lost twice previously to Jimtown before Andrews beat them 1-0. The story here is clearly that Bremen has found new life late in the season.

Garrett came out of a less than power-packed sectional, but all four teams here seem fairly equal and all have faced good competition.

Boone has actually faced the weakest schedule of the four. Boone Grove got a big lift when Taylor Johnson returned from a shoulder injury to pitch a 10-0 shutout of Winamac and a 1-0, 10-inning shutout of arch-rival Hebron. The Wolves may have regained a lot of confidence after losing three times when Johnson was injured. First baseman Caitlin Wilcox led the PCC with seven homers and center fielder Katie Runyon has game-breaking speed and can switch-hit.

Hanover has the best team here, but they did not play like it in a 7-3 eight-inning win over Bishop Noll (19-11) in the 2A Lake Station Sectional finals. Defense and base running errors were covered up by home run power and the pitching of sophomore Jessica Toth (11-3). Normally an eight-day break between games is not a good thing, but HC would not have wanted to play the next day after surviving against Noll.

Hanover is unconventional because they don't bunt and steal bases as much as most softball teams. The Lady Cats 3-through-7 hitters are free swingers without a lot of speed and they need a good day at the plate. The top two batters, Kara Gilbert and Morgan Austgen are crucial because they must get on base and Kelsey Jankowski (.425, 8 HRs, 25 RBIs) has to be a potent force because Boone will pitch around Jessica Toth. The rest of the order can't manufacture runs. HC's only been shutout once (by Whiting's Mel Dumezich), but they are vulnerable to that because they don't do a lot of slapping and stealing.

Boone isn't a very good offensive team outside of Runyon, Johnson and Wilcox in the middle of the order. But they have more speed than HC if they can get on base. Their schedule lacks some of the 4A teams HC plays, but Boone has also been shut out just once, 5-0 by Bishop Noll.

I like Bremen because they have defeated two-Top-10 teams already, and Hanover, because they are 3-0 on this field this year and because HC has two three-year starters in the middle of the infield and five two-year starters around them. Experience matters because the 2A regional is traditionally crazy.

The wildest game in Hanover history was probably the 8-7, 12-inning Hanover Central regional championship victory over Rochester in June of 2004 at LaVille in 2004. In the 1A regional championship game at Caston last year, South Central beat Lakewood Park Christian 17-12. On June 6, 2003, Hanover beat West Lafayette 3-2 in a 13-inning, three-hour regional championship game. When a trip to the state finals is one game away, players start doing things they have not done all year.

Hanover is the most experienced team here. The Lady Cats have the experience to handle the situation when things get crazy and things will get crazy. All three of these games could be high scoring. Bremen will be the road team in the regional semifinals (if they reach them) the finals. That suggests they will not win. Boone Grove would be the home team twice but, after seeing them play HC twice, I don't think they can shut down HC's batting order in a third meeting.

Newton Park in Lakeville has been good to Hanover. I'll take HC over Bremen in the final, but if you're going, bring supplies because we may be out on the trail all day and all night here.

Twin Lakes (3A) Regional
Class 3A - 11 a.m. (EDT)
No. 1 (Mishawaka) Marian (27-4) vs. ANDREAN (18-9)
Gavit (18-9) vs. Benton Central (22-7)
Regional Championship - 7 p.m. (EST)

MONTIELLO (5-31-2008) The second game here is one of those matchups that looks a lot better on paper than it is in reality. The Gladiators have not done well against good competition all season and they romped through a sectional of sub-.500 teams. Sophomore right-handier Roxanne Miniuk (14-7, 0.90 ERA) is a quality pitcher, but the Glads have had trouble hitting good pitching.

Enter junior BC star Abbie Tolen (18-5), who pitched three complete games in leading the Bison over the field at the Twin Lakes Sectional. Tolen struck out 11 in a 10-1 rout of Western (15-8) in the semifinals. Tolen also blanked the hosts, No. 12 Twin Lakes 3-0 in the sectional quarterfinals. Shortstop Emily Sheetz (33-78, .423) drove in the winning run in a 6-5 come-from-behind win over Northwestern. Sheetz bats third behind her sister, second baseman Olivia Sheets and leadoff batter Alisha Harvey, who has scored 35 runs. Those three had eight hits against Northwestern.

Gavit blanked Roosevelt 10-0 and Clark 4-0 to win the Hammond Sectional and they will be the home team against BC. On paper, it looks like Gavit can pull an upset. But Benton Central was ranked third in the state to start the season and they have played six games at the Twin Lakes softball complex already this year. Gavit has never played there. Gavit, to tell the truth, doesn't play any games outside of Northwest Indiana. They aren't ready for this. If the game is still even after 2-1/2 innings, the Gladiators have a chance. But I don't think it will be. BC is very much at home here.

Then one of the more intriguing match-ups of the entire state tournament, with the defending 3A champion Andrean taking on the No. 1 team in Marian. And we have documented evidence here, because in the final game of the season, the 59ers beat Marian 4-3 in Marian's "Bishop's Cup" tournament in Mishawaka. Marian's top pitcher, truly their only pitcher, is Samantha DeFord (26-3), who pitched a five-inning, no-hitter against Plymouth in the St. Joseph's Sectional championship game after pitching a one-hitter against New Prairie in the semifinals after pitching a two-hitter in a 2-1 win over Culver Academy in the quarterfinals. DeFord had 28 strikeouts in three games and gave up just three base hits.

We need a little perspective here. You will read how Hanover Central defeated Marian 10-1 in early April. DeFord was hurt and didn't pitch that day. But in the 4-3 loss to Andrean, DeFord did pitch. She allowed just four hits, but the Niners led 4-1 after six innings. Alyssa Mosely was the Niner pitcher that day. She allowed nine hits, but struck out nine.

I don't know which of the Niners pitchers is better in relief, but I'd guess that senior Nicole Derezinski (9-2, 0.19 ERA), who pitched five shutout innings against Griffith in the sectional championship game, will start against Marian. The Niners play at the Twin Lakes Invitational in Monticello every year, in small part, because this has long been the 3A regional site. Andrean is in a comfort zone here, which I think many underestimate.

Alyssa Mosely (.378) and Audrey Bickel (.468) lead the offense, but Andrean won't win a high-scoring game Saturday. Lets get real here. Marian has lost to Hanover (20-7), Andrean (19-8), Penn (23-6) and McCutcheon (25-2), four formidable programs. The Knights have beaten five sectional champs including Boone Grove, Triton, Northridge, Homestead and Penn (Marian split with Penn), as well as beating Mishawaka and Elkhart Memorial, both 20-game winners. This is one year when Andrean has not played a tougher schedule than the opposition. But Marian does not have a big time offense. They win the close ones. But this is one game where Marian will not have more experience in tight games than the opposition.

The Niners had four one-run games with quality teams in the final 10 days of the year. They are ready for this Saturday. I would not pitch Mosely against Marian again. If Derenzinski, who was 11-2 last season, pitches, I think Andrean will defeat the Knights again.

Elkhart (4A) Regional
Class 4A - 11 a.m. (EDT)
No. 7 Munster (27-6) vs. LaPorte (18-13)
Northridge (20-5) vs. Penn (23-6)

ELKHART (5-31-2008) On the surface, it looks like Penn and Munster are destined for a regional championship match. But when the playoffs began, few gave LaPorte and Northridge much chance at all. LaPorte upset Portage 2-1 and rallied to beat Crown Point 4-2 in the sectional title game. They are led by a very steady junior right-hander in Amanda Jones (13-9), who needs a good defense behind her. She is not a strikeout pitcher.

Munster has featured consistent play against a rock-solid schedule that includes perhaps the two toughest tournaments in the state, the Carmel Invitational in April and the Twin Lakes Invitational in May, which was won by Munster. I do not know how Munster right-hander Eleanor Kennedy (19-0) is undefeated. She is not a strikeout pitcher at all. Kennedy struck out one batter in a 6-3 win over Portage in the regular season finale. Kennedy struck out just five in the 2-0 win over Harrison on May 10. I must admit that I did not, at the start of the season, feel Kennedy was much superior to teammate Grace Ispas (8-5), who pitched a shutout in the Twin Lakes Invitational title game. Munster has beaten four sectional champions including Andrean, Hanover Central, McCutcheon and Benton Central. But the most telling results are these: a 15-2 loss to Lake Central on March 24 and a 4-1 victory over the same team on May 23. The Lady Ponies have not been shut out all year, and against their schedule, that says something.

LaPorte is riding high after their first sectional title in 14 years. They have won six in a row and the second half revival mirrors the return to the roster of Tara Buchanan, who was suspended over the first 10 games. Buchanan is a big right-handed hitting shortstop who has a very quick bat. Crown Point's Jackie Beilfuss challenged her with a 2-0 lead and Buchanan quickly tied the game with a sixth-inning single on the way to a 4-2 LaPorte win.

The second game sets Penn against one of the state's best pitchers in Northridge senior Ashley Hamilton (16-3), a future Division II college volleyball player, who allowed one run on five hits and four walks in three sectional games. Hamilton no-hit Elkhart Memorial (22-5), a team that went 14-0 in the Northern Indiana Conference. She two-hit Elkhart Central and she three-hit Concord (16-11).

Penn is every bit as strong as Munster. They split with Andrean. Penn defeated Lake Central in April. The Kingsmen crushed South Bend Adams (20-8) 6-0 and edged Mishawaka (25-5) 6-5 at the sectional level.

Playing in Elkhart on a very familiar field, Penn, with right-hander Monica Palicki (16-4) has home run power. Ashley Carrasco's seventh-inning homerun gave Penn the 6-5 win over Mishawaka, their arch-rival and a team that had defeated them in April. Penn and Munster have not met this year and I don't think they're going to meet this weekend.

Penn does not play Northridge, which was a 3A team last year. To my knowledge, unless they met during the summer, Munster girls have never seen Hamilton.

Team-wise, Munster and Penn are superior to Northridge and LaPorte, and I don't know if it's that close. But softball isn't always a team sport. The best pitcher on the field Saturday will be Northridge's Ashley Hamilton. To be blunt, hitters usually choke in the post-season and the team with the best pitcher and infield defense usually wins.

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