Week 4 Picks - 2018 NW Indiana High School Football
A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith
September 4, 2018
Michigan City is looking for proof they are better than rival Valparaiso and the truth will be on the board for all to see Friday. Defending Duneland Athletic Conference (DAC) champion Valparaiso visits Michigan City this Friday night (09-07-2018). (Photo by Mark Smith)
"Mr. Picker" - WEEK (4) FOUR:
MICHIGAN CITY (09-07-2018) This looks like one of the weaker weeks of the season. Too many mismatches and a lot of 1-2 teams hungry to get a win.
Are Hobart and Calumet the only 3-0 teams in Northwest Indiana after three weeks? I didn’t see that coming.
There have been a lot of quarterback debuts in 2018 due to graduation and some injuries. I believe that six teams in the Duneland Athletic Conference are starting a quarterback who didn’t start any games last year.
‘Mr. Obvious’ says: When you start a rookie QB, your chances of winning early in the season are not nearly as good as they will be later in the year.
I’m only picking 10 games this week because, well, there are some games that are not quite 'prime time' matchups.
I don't like the competitive looks of Highland at Gavit (0-3). You guys out there can pick that game with no help from me. I think the winner of the Andrean-Hammond game will also not be ‘breaking news.’ Lowell (2-1) and Clark (1-2) is another I could pick if I wanted to pad my winning percentage.
Crown Point (1-2) vs. Lake Central (2-1)? That’s a good one. Let me think about that one. Check back Thursday for that pick.
'Mr. Picker' WEEK-3, 2018 Football Picks in Review:
Aug. 31 - Sept. 1, 2018
Wrong - 4; Right - 9 = 69.2%
The Pick The Result
Whiting 28, Boone Grove 21
Delphi 35, North Judson 28
Calumet 42, South Central 28
Griffith 28, River Forest 14
Highland 30, Clark 14
Munster 24, East Chicago 20
Hobart 27, Culver Academy 20
New Prairie 27, Andrean 24
(wrong) ANDREAN 44-28
Michigan City 23, Chesterton 12
Michigan City 28-10
Lake Central 28, Portage 7
(wrong) Portage 18-12
Valparaiso 24, LaPorte 14
LOWELL 16, Morton 14
CP 27, MERRILLVILLE 21
(wrong) MERRILLVILLE 26-21
Week Three Review: Not great. Almost got the CP-Merrillville game correct and missed on LC-Portage. I thought Andrean was shorthanded going to New Prairie but it didn’t seem to matter. I believe the Whiting-Boone game was cancelled although I don't know why. That counts as a missed prediction around these parts.
BEST PICK: None, really. It was a weak week.
WORST PICK: Lake Central over Portage by 21. That didn’t happen and, in retrospect, it wasn’t going to. What happened to Morton at Lowell suggests that LC’s 20-point win over Morton a week earlier wasn’t the smashing victory it seemed to be.
‘Mr. Picker’ 2018 RESULTS
WEEK (3) 9 of 13 = 69.2%
WEEK (2) 12 of 15 = 80.0%
WEEK (1) 10 of 13 = 76.1%
Season so far: 31 of 41 = 75.6%
'Mr. Picker' (13 Years)
2017 (final) OVERALL: 137 of 184 = 74.4%
2016 (final) OVERALL: 119 of 170 = 70.0%
2015 (final) OVERALL: 131 of 174 = 75.2%
2014 (final) OVERALL: 131 of 176 = 74.4%
2013 (final) OVERALL: 130 of 175 = 74.2%
2012 (final) OVERALL: 137 of 177 = 77.4%
2011 (final) OVERALL: 134 of 184 = 72.7%
2010 (final) OVERALL: 135 of 184 = 73.3%
2009 (final) OVERALL: 154 of 212 = 72.6%
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%
'Mr. Picker' 2018
- WEEK (4)
Griffith (1-2) at Calumet (3-0):
GARY (9-07-2018) Griffith won for the first time last week, topping River Forest 48-6. Calumet plays their first four games at home and they are 3-0 so far. Looking at old news, Calumet hasn’t beaten Griffith since the 1983 season. 15 loses in a row. Some by embarrassing margins. This would be a very big win for the Warriors. But I just don't see it.
Griffith 28, Calumet 20
Rensselaer (2-1) at Twin Lakes (1-2):
MONTICELLO (9-07-2018) Twin Lakes can put points on the board. But ‘defense’ has been a word spoken only quietly in private. Twin Lakes lost 56-35 to Tipton last week. I was shocked to my shoes when I saw that Rensselaer, a 2A school lost 42-14 last week to Class 4A Western. Not that they lost, but the 28-point margin. If they are 100% healthy, I think the Bombers get back on the winning side big this week.
Rensselaer 52, Twin Lakes 21
Munster (1-2) at Morton (0-3):
HAMMOND (9-07-2018) Morton lost 38-0 to Lowell last week and they have too much individual talent for that. Penalties. Turnovers. One of these weeks. Morton will clean up their game and put it all together. Munster may have made some lineup changes last week that sparked the team in a big win, 48-24 over East Chicago. Time to ride the wild horses.
Munster 31, Morton 20
Wheeler (2-0) at Whiting (2-0):
WHITING (9-07-2018) Apparently Whiting led Boone 27-13 last Saturday night, but the game was postponed by rain and lightning and the two schools decided to just cancel it. Wheeler didn’t play last week because that was the week they had Bishop Noll scheduled. Noll canceled their varsity season last month due to lack of players. So, neither team will have played in two weeks. I think Whiting wins a close one.
Whiting 20, Wheeler 16
MERRILLVILLE (2-1) at Portage (2-1):
PORTAGE (9-07-2018) Portage has played well, but I don’t think they can move the ball on Merrillville. The Pirates are very, very hard to run on. Portage’s defense has played well since the opener with Mishawaka and you need to beat the Pirates now, because by the end of the season you may not be able to.
MERRILLVILLE 20, Portage 7
Kankakee Valley (1-2) at North Newton (2-1):
MOROCCO (9-07-2018) KV got a much-needed win last week on the road at (South Bend) Washington, but the Spartans have done very well outside the week two loss to 2A No. 10 Rensselaer. The two teams North Newton has defeated are 0-3. KV found some offensive success last week and I think it will continue.
KV 28, North Newton 14
Hanover Central (2-1) at River Forest (0-3):
HOBART TOWNSHIP (9-07-2018) The Ingots lost a rain-delayed game at Griffith by six touchdowns. Hanover has two solid small school wins and a 26-0 loss to 3A Top-10 Andrean. There are wins for River Forest on the horizon, but we aren't there yet.
Hanover Central 35, River Forest 14
New Prairie (2-1) at (So. Bend) St. Joseph’s (3-0):
SOUTH BEND (9-07-2018) An interesting game. New Prairie lost 44-28 last week, but their quarterback Chase Ketterer left the game in the second quarter and did not return. Word is: He may be back against St. Joe. Which makes this a close game. St. Joe has a hard core defense and they’ve allowed just 20 points all season so far. But they won just 7-6 over Marian last Friday. Got a feeling about this one. If Ketterer plays, New Prairie upsets St. Joseph.
New Prairie 21, St. Joseph’s 14
Chesterton (1-2) at LaPorte (0-3):
LaPORTE (9-07-2018) LaPorte had a hard August, losing three in a row and taking big whippings from Valparaiso and New Prairie. Chesterton is 1-2, but they lost to Hobart 10-9 and they led Michigan City 10-7 before the game was postponed last Friday and MC won 28-10. LaPorte’s offense should eventually kick into high gear. They should be able to run the ball much better than they have. LaPorte’s got to win eventually, don’t they?
LaPorte 21, Chesterton 14
Valparaiso (1-2) at Michigan City (2-1):
MICHIGAN CITY (9-07-2018) MC has lost to Illinois power Homewood-Flossmoor. Valpo has lost to two Top-10 teams. But this is the game they’ve pointed to since fall practice began. I’m not sure MC can consistently move the ball on Valpo and the Wolves could not stop a good, but not great H-F team. Michigan City is the more hyped team, but I think Valparaiso is the better team.
Valpo 24, Michigan City 13
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Revised: September 04, 2018 .