Week 10 Picks - 2018 NW Indiana High School Football
A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith
October 18, 2018
The big game in Northwest Indiana on opening night of the state tournament sends 4A No. 2 Mishawaka to Hobart for a Class 4A Sectional 18 quarterfinal. (Photo by Mark Smith)
"Mr. Picker" - WEEK (10) TEN:
VALPARAISO (10-19-2018) The smaller schools have to start the playoffs immediately, while the larger schools get this week off. (See how fair that sounds.)
So the week nine games, which are meaningless in Class 5A and 6A from a point of momentum certainly factor in here.
The ultimate example of that is, of course, East Chicago at Hammond. In week nine: EC won at Hammond 28-0. In the Class 4A Sectional 17 quarterfinals, East Chicago returns to Hammond.
There is history of a team losing to a rival in week nine and turning around and beating them in week 10. But I would have to be more bold than I am old to suggest that that EC-Hammond score would be reversed.
Lake Station (0-9) gets a moral victory because, due to Bishop Noll dropping football for a couple of years, Lake Station drew a bye in this Friday’s quarterfinals. Don’t let any coach ever tell you that a first round bye in a single-elimination state tournament is anything but good.
Once again: The truest words in sports. You can't lose a game you don’t have to play.
New rules for the post-season. We pick every local game in every class, no matter how lop-sided. Again, I can't quite come to a conclusion on the Lowell-Highland game yet. Check back elsewhere on our website for that choice. In the meantime, a review of last week's 'Mr. Picker' results:
'Mr. Picker' WEEK-9, 2018 Football Picks in Review:
Oct. 12-13, 2018
Wrong - 4; Right - 12 = 75.0%
The Pick The Result
Kankakee Valley 24, Munster 16
(wrong) Munster 20-13
Wheeler 20, Calumet 16
(wrong) Calumet 34-14
Morton 35, Clark 14
Gavit 28, West Side 12
Andrean 38, Highland 14
Rensselaer 42, Cass 21
(wrong) Cass 20-14
Griffith 28, Hanover Central 7
New Prairie 42, Elkhart Central 35
New Prairie 49-0
Merrillville 31, Chesterton 17
Michigan City 28, CROWN POINT 7
Mich. City 48-0
Portage 17, LaPorte 14
(wrong) LaPorte 22-19
LOWELL 21, Hobart 14
Week Eight Review: I don’t know what happened in some of these games in week nine. Rensselaer led Lewis Cass 14-0 and somehow that game got turned around. Munster had lost five in a row, but suddenly they rise up. My ‘coin flip’ on the LaPorte-Portage game came up on the wrong side.
BEST PICK: None really. There was not one pick that was accurate if you consider the score. Five shutouts in those 12 games. Sometimes I wonder if ‘shut out’ teams give up when the weather’s bad and they’re hopelessly behind.
WORST PICK: Wheeler over Calumet 20-16 when the final score was 34-14 the other way. Not even close. All credit to the Warriors. What on earth made me pick Wheeler?
‘Mr. Picker’ 2018 RESULTS
WEEK (9) 8 of 12 = 75.0%
WEEK (8) 10 of 12 = 83.3%
WEEK (7) 10 of 12 = 83.3%
WEEK (6) 9 of 12 = 75.0%
WEEK (5) 8 of 12 = 66.7%
WEEK (4) 10 of 11 = 90.9%
WEEK (3) 9 of 13 = 69.2%
WEEK (2) 12 of 15 = 80.0%
WEEK (1) 10 of 13 = 76.1%
Season so far: 86 of 112 = 76.7%
'Mr. Picker' (13 Years)
2017 (final) OVERALL: 137 of 184 = 74.4%
2016 (final) OVERALL: 119 of 170 = 70.0%
2015 (final) OVERALL: 131 of 174 = 75.2%
2014 (final) OVERALL: 131 of 176 = 74.4%
2013 (final) OVERALL: 130 of 175 = 74.2%
2012 (final) OVERALL: 137 of 177 = 77.4%
2011 (final) OVERALL: 134 of 184 = 72.7%
2010 (final) OVERALL: 135 of 184 = 73.3%
2009 (final) OVERALL: 154 of 212 = 72.6%
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%
'Mr. Picker' 2018
- WEEK (10)
Class 1A Sectional 41
(1A) Triton (6-3) at Culver (2-7):
CULVER (10-19-2018) It's been a hard ride down a dusty road for Culver. One of the Cavaliers’ two wins is over Caston (0-9). Triton beat Culver 35-21 in week six. Can that matchup change in five weeks? It might.
Triton 28, Culver 21
(1A) Winamac (4-5) at Caston (0-9):
CASTON (10-19-2018) Caston is a very pretty place in the country. They have a wonderful old-school style basketball gym. And they’ll be using it more come Monday. Winamac won 61-16 at Caston in week eight.
Winamac 42, Caston 6
(1A) North Judson (4-5) at LaVille (6-3):
LAKEVILLE (10-19-2018) Something happened to North Judson. After scoring 50 or more points four times in the first seven weeks, the Jays have been shut out the last two weeks 27-0 and 36-0. And the team that beat them 27-0 was LaVille. I wonder if the Jays have suffered a key injury or two. No logic in picking them here.
LaVille 27, North Judson 7
South Central (2-7) at West Central (4-5):
FRANCESVILLE (10-19-2018) Most 1A teams in the same region play each other during the year because there’s not that many 1A public schools anymore. But EC and WC have not met since the 2016 playoffs. I think South Central has been hurt by injuries (which matter much more to a 1A school than they do a 6A school because one player may play two positions) and the Satellites have lost four in a row.
West Central 35, South Central 14
Class 2A Sectional 33
(2A) Bowman Academy (5-3) at Boone Grove (7-2):
PORTER TOWNSHIP (10-19-2018) I thought Bowman would make a ‘statement’ against Whiting (9-0) and Covenant Christian (9-0) the last two weeks. The statements ended on the bad side of 50-0 and 42-8 scores. Bowman’s not ready to stop Boone running the football.
Boone Grove 42, Bowman Academy 14
(2A) North Newton (5-4) at Whiting (9-0):
WHITING (10-19-2018) It's been a hard ride on an angry horse for both teams this year. One year ago this week, Whiting carried a five game winning streak down to Newton County for the opening game of the post-season. It was a long ride home. The Whiting boys have not forgotten. Among teams with winning records, this is the ‘lock’ of the week.
Whiting 42, North Newton 20
(2A) Gary Roosevelt (3-6) at River Forest (2-7):
HOBART TOWNSHIP (10-19-2018) Hard game to figure. River Forest beat Roosevelt 32-22 in week six, but RF’s only other win was over Lake Station (0-9). Roosevelt has played three out-of-state teams so I don’t know much for certain about them. RF has been shut out the last two weeks. You can flip a coin on this one.
River Forest 16, Gary Roosevelt 14
Class 3A Sectional 25
(3A) Wheeler (4-4) at Hanover Central (4-5):
CEDAR LAKE (10-19-2018) The earlier meeting was a two-point win for the Bearcats in week seven. I think here’s a case where the regular season loser is the playoff winner.
Hanover Central 21, Wheeler 13
(3A) Andrean (8-1) at Benton Central (0-9):
OXFORD (10-19-2018) I say this every year. If you do not win at least three games (in a 9-game regular season) you should not be allowed to participate in the state tournament. Football is too violent a game to play meaningless mismatches.
Andrean 56, Benton Central 0
(3A) Twin Lakes (4-5) at Clark (3-6):
HAMMOND (10-19-2018) Clark has had a couple of good nights, but even at home, this one will be difficult. Twin Lakes has two 900-yard rushers and there’s no secret what they do. I’m not bold enough to pick a Clark upset.
Twin Lakes 28, Clark 21
(3A) West Lafayette (9-0) at Calumet (6-3):
GARY (10-19-2018) West Lafayette junior quarterback Kent Adams (6-1, 170) has completed 162 of 218 passes for 2,414 yards and 34 touchdowns. He has five 300-yard passing games. Calumet’s had a good year, but there’s just no way they are still playing next week.
West Lafayette 42, Calumet 12
Class 4A Sectional 18
(4A) New Prairie (6-3) at (SB) Washington (3-6)
SOUTH BEND (10-19-2018) One of Washington’s wins is over Hammond (0-8), another is over Clay (0-8) and the third is over John Glenn (1-8). This game will be over very quickly.
New Prairie 56, Washington 0
(4A) St. Joseph’s (5-4) at Kankakee Valley (2-7):
WHEATFIELD (10-19-2018) St. Joe has played a tougher schedule and done better with it. KV has lost five in a row, but three are by seven points or less. St. Joe has lost three of their last four, but the losses are to Culver Academy (6-2), Penn (7-2) and Mishawaka (8-1). This game looks closer on paper than it will be on the field.
St. Joe 40, Kankakee Valley 14
(4A) Clay (0-8) at Riley (4-5):
SOUTH BEND (10-19-2018) Riley beat Clay 45-10 in week six. Clay has given up 50 or more points five times. Clay shouldn’t be forced to go through another beating.
Riley 49, Clay 0
(4A) Mishawaka (8-1) at Hobart (7-2):
HOBART (10-19-2018) Week nine went dramatically different for these two teams. Mishawaka won 49-42 in overtime over arch-rival Penn. Hobart had a really bad night losing 34-7 at Lowell. This game might be much different if these teams had a bye week. But they don’t.
Mishawaka 31, Hobart 17
Class 4A Sectional 17
(4A) East Chicago (5-4) at Hammond (0-8):
HAMMOND (10-19-2018) These teams played last week. EC won 28-0 and it was only that close because it was raining. This is another game that just shouldn’t be played.
East Chicago 42, Hammond 0
(4A) Morton (7-2) at Gavit (4-5):
HAMMOND (10-19-2018) Morton beat Gavit 31-0 in week six, but Gavit has won their last three games. I’d like to tell you that this one is going to be close. I’d also like to tell you that the Cubs will be in the World Series. It isn't happening.
Morton 30, Gavit 0
(4A) Gary West Side (1-8) at Griffith (7-2):
GRIFFITH (10-19-2018) Griffith has won seven games in a row and West Side, let's just say, hasn’t. Griffith didn’t get a first round bye, but a home game against a team that is totally outmanned, is the next best thing.
Griffith 42, Gary West Side 0
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Revised: October 18, 2018 .